從減稅轉向關稅 川普無視經濟警訊

The day after House Republicans approved an expensive package of tax cuts that rattled financial markets, President Donald Trump pivoted back to his other signature policy priority, unveiling a battery of tariff threats that further spooked investors and raised the prospects of higher prices on American consumers.

聯邦眾議院共和黨人通過一項昂貴的減稅方案、造成金融市場動盪的隔天，川普轉回到他另一項標誌性的優先政策，公布一連串的關稅威脅，投資人進一步受驚，消費者面對物價上漲的可能性升高。

For a president who has fashioned himself as a shrewd steward of the economy, the decision to escalate his global trade war Friday appeared curious and costly. It capped off a week that saw Trump ignore repeated warnings that his agenda could worsen the nation’s debt, harm many of his own voters, hurt the finances of low-income families and contribute far less in growth than the White House contends.

對於一位將自己塑造成精明經濟管理者的總統來說，周五升高全球貿易戰的決定顯得令人不解又代價高昂。這一周的高潮，是川普無視一再出現的警告，這些警告指出他的政策可能會加劇國債、傷害許多他的支持者、打擊低收入家庭的財務狀況，且帶來的經濟成長遠不如白宮所宣稱的程度。

The tepid market response to the president’s economic policy approach did little to sway Trump, who Friday chose to revive the uncertainty that has kept businesses and consumers on edge. The president threatened 50% tariffs on the European Union, and a 25% tariff on Apple. Other tech companies, he said, could face the same rate.

市場對川普經濟政策冷淡，他並未因此動搖。（上）周五，他選擇再度製造不確定性，讓企業與消費者繼續提心吊膽。他威脅對歐盟徵50%關稅，並對蘋果公司徵25%關稅。他表示其他科技公司可能面臨相同稅率。

Since taking office, Trump has raced to enact his economic vision, aiming to pair generous tax cuts with sweeping deregulation that he says will expand America’s economy. He has fashioned his steep, worldwide tariffs as a political cudgel that will raise money, encourage more domestic manufacturing and improve U.S. trade relationships.

川普上任以來，全力推動他的經濟藍圖，目標是將大規模減稅與廣泛鬆綁監管結合，他聲稱這將擴大美國經濟。他將自己主張的大規模全球關稅視為一種政治工具，用來創造財政收入、促進國內製造、並改善美國的貿易關係。

But for many of his signature policies to succeed, Trump will have to prove investors wrong, particularly those who lend money to the government by buying its debt.

然而，要讓這些招牌政策成功，川普必須說服投資人，特別是那些透過購買美國國債借錢給政府的人。

So far, bond markets are not buying his approach. Where Trump sees a “golden age” of growth, investors see an agenda that comes with more debt, higher borrowing costs, inflation and an economic slowdown. Investors who once viewed government debt as a relatively risk-free investment are now demanding that the United States pay much more to those who lend America money.

但到目前為止，債券市場並不買帳。川普所見的是「黃金時代」的成長，投資人看到的卻是更多債務、更高的借款成本、通貨膨脹，以及經濟放緩。那些曾將美國國債視為相對無風險投資的投資人，如今要求美國必須付出更高的借貸成本。

That is on top of businesses, including Walmart, that say they may have to raise prices as a result of the president’s global trade war. The onslaught of policy changes has also left the Federal Reserve frozen in place, unsure as to when the economy will call for lower interest rates in the face of persistent uncertainty. As a result, borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans and credit cards remain onerous for Americans.

這還不包括企業的反應，包括沃爾瑪在內，都表示川普的全球貿易戰可能迫使它們提高價格。這一連串政策變動造成的不確定性使聯準會動彈不得，不確定何時可以降息。結果就是，美國人在房貸、車貸與信用卡上的借貸成本仍居高不下。

Still, Trump continues to proclaim that his policies will bring prosperity.

即便如此，川普依然宣稱他的政策將帶來繁榮。

印度媒體如何在戰爭節奏中放大謊言

The news reports chronicled India’s overwhelming successes: Indian attacks had struck a Pakistani nuclear base, downed two Pakistani fighter jets and blasted part of Pakistan’s Karachi port, the country’s oil and trade lifeline.

新聞報導記錄了印度壓倒性的勝利：印度攻擊了巴基斯坦的一處核基地，擊落了兩架巴基斯坦戰機，並炸毀了巴基斯坦喀拉蚩港的一部分—這是該國石油與貿易的命脈。

Each piece of information was highly specific, but none of it was true.

每一條資訊都非常具體，但沒有一項是真的。

Disinformation on social media in the days during and since India and Pakistan’s intense military confrontation last month has been overwhelming. But some also made its way into the mainstream media, a development that alarmed analysts monitoring the evolution of outlets in India once trusted for their independence. The race to break news and a jingoistic approach to reporting reached a fever pitch during the four-day conflict. Some well-known TV networks aired unverified information or even fabricated stories amid a burst of nationalistic fervor.

印度和巴基斯坦上個月激烈軍事對抗期間和此後數日，社群充斥大量假訊息。但其中一些假訊息也流入主流媒體，這個發展令監測印度媒體機構演變的分析家們震驚，這些媒體機構曾因獨立性受到信任。這場4天的衝突期間，爭相報導新聞和狹隘民族主義的報導方式到了極度狂熱的程度。民族主義熱潮高漲之際，有些知名電視新聞網播送未經核實的資訊，甚至是捏造的故事。

“When we think of misinformation, we think of anonymous people, of bots online, where you never know what the source of the thing is,” said Sumitra Badrinathan, an assistant professor of political science at American University who studies misinformation in South Asia. In this case, Badrinathan said, “previously credible journalists and major media news outlets ran straight-up fabricated stories.”

研究南亞假訊息的美利堅大學政治學助理教授蘇米特拉．巴德里納坦表示：「我們想到假訊息時，會想到匿名人士、網路機器人，你永遠都不知道這些資訊的來源是什麼。」巴德里納坦說，在這個案例，「先前可靠的記者和主流媒體機構直接報導了捏造的故事」。

“When previously trusted sources become disinformation outlets, it’s a really large problem,” she said.

她說：「先前可信的來源變成假訊息管道時，真是個大問題。」

The misinformation shared on mainstream media platforms about the conflict between India and Pakistan is the latest blow to what was once a vibrant journalism scene in India. Warring sides have spread lies and propaganda for as long as there has been armed conflict. And mainstream news outlets have not been immune from presenting their country’s battlefield efforts in a favorable light or from, at times, rushing to publish information that later turns out to be incorrect.

主流媒體平台分享關於印度和巴基斯坦間衝突的假訊息，是對於曾經活躍的印度新聞業最新打擊。自有武裝衝突以來，交戰雙方都在散布謊言和政治宣傳。主流媒體機構也不免對其國家戰場表現進行正面報導，或有時匆忙公布之後被證明為不真實的資訊。

But social media has exponentially increased the potential for misinformation. And in India, there has been a steady erosion of free speech since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014. Many news outlets have been pressured into suppressing news damaging to the government’s reputation. Others have come to promote the government’s policies. (Some small independent online news publications have pursued more accountable journalism, but their reach is limited.)

但社群媒體大幅增加傳播假訊息的可能。且在印度，自總理莫迪2014年上任以來，言論自由逐漸受到侵蝕。許多媒體機構被施壓，壓制對政府聲譽有損的新聞。其他媒體機構則決定宣傳政府政策。（有些小型獨立線上新聞刊物追求更負責任的新聞報導，但影響力有限。）

“The information ecosystem is broken,” said Pratik Sinha, a founder of Alt News, an independent fact-checking website. Fact-checking can combat misinformation, Sinha said, but it has a cost: Alt News is fighting a defamation suit filed by another media outlet. Its reporters have also been harassed.

獨立事實查核網站Alt新聞一名創辦人辛哈表示：「資訊生態系統已經崩潰。」辛哈說，事實查核可以打擊假訊息，但它有代價：Alt新聞正對抗另一間新聞媒體提出的誹謗訴訟。記者也受到騷擾。