社群百萬人氣 未必能轉化為書籍買氣

A book by Billie Eilish seemed like a great bet. One of the most famous pop stars in the world, Eilish has 97 million followers on Instagram and another 6 million on Twitter. If just a fraction of them bought her book, it would be a hit.

「怪奇比莉」出書看似穩賺不賠。身為全球數一數二的流行歌手，她在IG有9700萬追隨者，在推特有600萬，只要有一小部分捧場，書就可以大賣。

But her self-titled book has sold about 64,000 hardcover copies since it came out in May, according to NPD BookScan, which tracks most printed books sold in the United States — not necessarily a disappointing number, unless Eilish got a big advance. Which, of course, she did. The book cost her publisher well over $1 million.

不過，追蹤美國多數印刷書籍銷量的出版業數據商NPD BookScan資料顯示，她這本同名書5月上市以來，賣了大約6萬4000本精裝本。除非怪奇比莉得到一大筆預付金，銷售數字不算太差，當然，她的確收到了。這本書花了出版社超過100萬美元。

It’s difficult to predict whether a book will be a hit. Every book is different, an individual work of art or culture, so when the publishing industry tries to forecast demand for new titles, it is, however thoughtfully, guessing. Because there are so few reliable metrics to look at, social-media followings have become some of the main data points publishers use to try to make their guesses more educated.

很難預測一本書是否會熱賣。每本書都不一樣，都是個別的藝術或文化作品，所以當出版業企圖預測新書需求時，不論考慮多周到，都是用猜的。由於可檢視的可靠指標太少，社群媒體追隨者數量便成了出版社用來讓猜測變得更有依據的一些最重要數據點。

An author’s following has become a standard part of the equation when publishers are deciding whether to acquire a book. Followings can affect who gets a book deal and how big an advance that author is paid, especially when it comes to nonfiction. But despite their importance, they are increasingly seen as unpredictable gauges of how well a book is actually going to sell.

當出版社決定是否出書時，作者的追隨者數量成了算式的標準部分。追隨者數量能影響誰會獲得出書合約，以及作者能拿到多少預付版稅，尤其是非虛構作品。不過，儘管追隨者數量很重要，判斷書籍實際銷量時，卻愈來愈不可預測。

Even having one of the biggest social-media followings in the world is not a guarantee.

就算社群媒體追隨者數量在全球名列前茅，也不能保證什麼。

“The only reliable part about it,” said Shannon DeVito, director of books at Barnes & Noble, “is that it’s unreliable.”

美國邦諾圖書總監香農．德維托說：「追隨者數量唯一可靠的地方，就是它並不可靠。」

An author’s platform has long been something publishers look at — does she have a radio show, for example, or a regular guest spot on TV? But as local news outlets and book coverage have dwindled, the avenues for book publicity have shrunk, making an author’s ability to help get the word out more crucial.

And when an author speaks to her followers about a book she wrote, she is talking to people who are at least a little bit interested in what she has to share.

作者的平台向來是出版社留意的地方。例如，作者有自己的廣播節目，或定期上電視節目當來賓嗎？不過，隨著地方新聞媒體和書籍相關報導式微，打書的管道也縮減，使作者的宣傳功力更形重要。而當作者對追隨者談到自己寫的書時，談話的對象至少對作者分享的東西有點興趣。

“It’s become more and more important as the years went on,” said Marc Resnick, executive editor at St. Martin’s Press. “We learned some hard lessons along the way, which is that a tweet or a post is not necessarily going to sell any books, if it’s not the right person with the right book and the right followers at the right time.”

紐約聖馬丁出版社總編輯雷斯尼克說：「隨著一年年過去，有件事變得愈來愈重要。我們一路上學到一些艱澀的教訓，那就是，如果不是對的作者寫了對的書，又在對的時間遇到對的追隨者，一則推文或貼文不見得就能把書賣出去。」

名人瘋創美妝品牌 粉絲應接不暇

Anya Dua, the 17-year-old founder of Gen Z Identity Lab, an online platform for Gen Zers to express their views on politics, mental health, climate change and culture, remembers the first (and last) time she bought makeup from a celebrity beauty brand.

17歲的安雅．杜亞是「Z世代身分實驗室」創辦人，這是一個讓Z世代表達政治、心理健康、氣候變遷和文化觀點的線上平台。她回想起第一次（也是最後一次）購買名人自創美妝品牌化妝品的經驗。

She was 12 and used her mom’s credit card to order a $29 Kylie Lip Kit in Candy K, a matte pink liquid lipstick and matching lip liner. Kylie Jenner’s debut makeup product sold out in seconds when it went on sale in 2015 (the website crashed, too), catapulting the youngest Kardashian-Jenner sibling to beauty mogul status at age 18.

當時她12歲，用母親的信用卡訂購一套29美元的裸粉色凱莉唇彩組，包含一支粉紅色霧面液態唇膏和同色唇線筆。凱莉珍娜首次推出的自創品牌化妝品2015年一開賣，就在幾秒內售罄（官網也當機），讓卡戴珊-珍娜家族中年紀最輕的她，年僅18歲就躍登為美妝天后。

“It was a huge thing,” Dua said. “You needed to have one.” Lip Kits became so popular that they hit the New York City bar and bat mitzvah circuit.

Emcees would toss the liquid lip colors and liners into a sea of dancing tweens in bandage dresses.

杜亞說：「那時超轟動的，一定要擁有。」這套唇彩組變得如此熱門，打進紐約市猶太教成年禮的圈子，主持人會把液態唇膏和唇線筆丟向一大群穿著緊身裝跳舞的青少女。

Fast-forward five years.

快轉五年就過了。

The global beauty market, which last year generated nearly $500 billion in sales, according to Euromonitor, a research firm, is teeming with celebrities, inundating social media feeds with lip gloss, face lotion and, most recently, vibrators (not technically beauty but beauty adjacent), with the promise of plump lips, glowing skin and a better sex life.

去年營業額近5000億美元（根據研究公司歐睿的資料）的全球美妝市場，如今擠滿了名人，使社群媒體貼文充斥著唇蜜、臉部乳液和最近出現的按摩棒（嚴格說來不是美妝品，但也接近了），保證給人豐唇、亮澤的肌膚和更好的性生活。

New lines come out at a dizzying rate. There’s Harry Styles’ Pleasing, nail polish in tiny glass jars that look like old-fashioned perfume bottles, and Machine Gun Kelly’s UN/DN LAQR, nail polish with “paint splatter” shades and brushes for nail art.

新品問世速度之快，讓人眼花撩亂：有英國歌手哈利史泰爾斯自創品牌Pleasing，把指甲油裝在迷你玻璃罐，看來像老派的香水瓶；有美國歌手機關槍凱利自創品牌UN/DN LAQR，用「潑漆」色調和刷頭的指甲油做指甲彩繪。

Ariana Grande has a new makeup line, space-themed, as does Chiara Ferragni, pink and sparkly. Billie Eilish and Addison Rae have released fragrances.

There’s Lori Harvey’s (daughter of Steve Harvey) SKN by LH skin care collection, and Demi Lovato’s Demi Wand, an eight-speed vibrator (created with Bellesa, an internet pornography site marketed to women).

美國歌手亞莉安娜推出新的美妝產品線，以太空為主題，義大利時尚網紅琪亞拉法拉格尼也是，粉色且閃閃發亮。美國歌手怪奇比莉和網紅艾蒂森蕾都發布香水產品。還有洛瑞哈維（美國電視主持人史蒂夫哈維的女兒）的SKN by LH護膚系列，以及美國歌手黛咪洛瓦特的Demi Wand八段變速按摩棒（與鎖定女性的成人網站Bellesa合作）。

Hailey Bieber has just confirmed that her Rhode Beauty will go on sale next year. (Rhode is her middle name.)

加拿大歌手小賈斯汀的妻子海莉才剛證實，她的個人品牌「羅德美妝」明年上市。（羅德是她中間名。）

It’s starting to feel like satire. When the Alex Rodriguez concealer for men (a creation with Hims & Hers) landed in May and populated celebrity news accounts like The Shade Room, commenters thought it was a joke.

這開始讓人覺得諷刺。美國職棒退役球星A-Rod推出的男性遮瑕膏（與遠距醫療新創公司Hims & Hers合作）5月上市，並受到The Shade Room這類名人新聞帳號大幅報導時，一些評論家覺得不過是個玩笑。

“When I see a celebrity beauty brand, I just don’t buy it,” Dua said.

杜亞說：「現在我看到名人自創美妝品牌，就是不會買。」