俄烏戰爭重新形塑歐洲支出分配

Nicolae Ciuca spent a lifetime on the battlefield before being voted in as prime minister of Romania four months ago. Yet even he did not imagine the need to spend millions of dollars for emergency production of iodine pills to help block radiation poisoning in case of a nuclear blast, or to raise military spending 25% in a single year.

四個月前被選為羅馬尼亞總理之前，尼可萊．丘卡的人生都在戰場上度過。然而他沒料到，需要花數百萬美元緊急製造碘錠，以阻擋萬一發生核爆時的輻射中毒，或是需要一年就提高25%的軍事開支。

“We never thought we’d need to go back to the Cold War and consider potassium iodine again,” Ciuca, a retired general, said through a translator at Victoria Palace, the government’s headquarters in Bucharest. “We never expected this kind of war in the 21st century.”

「我們從來沒有想過我們需要回到冷戰時期，而且還要再度考慮到碘化鉀」，退役將領丘卡在布加勒斯特的政府總部維多利亞宮，透過翻譯這麼說道，「我們從未想到在21世紀會還有這種戰爭」。

Across the European Union and Britain, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is reshaping spending priorities and forcing governments to prepare for threats thought to have been long buried — from a flood of European refugees to the possible use of chemical, biological and even nuclear weapons by a Russian leader who may feel backed into a corner.

在整個歐盟和英國，俄國入侵烏克蘭正重新形塑支出優先順序，迫使各國政府對原本以為早就消失的威脅做好準備，從大批湧入的歐洲難民，到一名俄國領導人在自認無路可退時可能使用化學、生物或甚至核武器。

The result is a sudden reshuffling of budgets as military spending, essentials like agriculture and energy, and humanitarian assistance are shoved to the front of the line, with other pressing needs like education and social services likely to be downgraded.

結果是突然的預算重新洗牌，軍事支出、農業和能源等基礎事業以及人道援助，被推到最前列，而像教育及社會福利的迫切需求可能被忽視。

The most significant shift is in military spending. Germany’s turnabout is the most dramatic, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s promise to raise spending above 2% of the country’s economic output, a level not reached in more than three decades. The pledge included an immediate injection of 100 billion euros into the country’s notoriously threadbare armed forces. As Scholz put it in his speech last month, “We need planes that fly, ships that sail and soldiers who are optimally equipped.”

最顯著的轉變就是軍事支出。德國的轉向最戲劇性，總理蕭茲承諾要把軍事支出提高到全國經濟產出的2%以上，是30多年不曾達到的程度。這項宣誓包括立即挹注1000億歐元至這個國家惡名昭彰的陳舊軍隊。如同蕭茲2月在演說中所提到，「我們需要能飛的飛機，能航行的船，以及裝備最好的軍人。」

The commitment is a watershed moment for a country that has sought to leave behind an aggressive military stance that contributed to two devastating world wars.

對於一個想要擺脫激進軍事立場導致兩場慘烈世界大戰的國家而言，這項承諾是個分水嶺時刻。

Belgium, Italy, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Sweden — a militarily neutral country that is not a part of NATO — have also announced increases to their defense budgets.

比利時、義大利、波蘭、拉脫維亞、立陶宛、挪威以及非北約一份子的軍事中立國瑞典，都宣布增加他們的國防預算。

“It’s our responsibility to take measure to protect ourselves,” said Ciuca, the Romanian prime minister. No one knows how long the war in Ukraine will continue, “but we have to reassess and adapt to what might happen in the future,” he added. “We have to be prepared for the unexpected.”

「採取措施保護自己是我們的責任」，羅馬尼亞總理丘卡說。沒人知道烏克蘭戰爭將持續多久，「但我們必須重新評估並因應未來可能發生的狀況」，他補充說，「我們必須為意想不到的事做好準備」。

普亭的認知作戰

In the tense weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, Russian officials denied that it planned anything of the sort, denouncing the United States and its NATO allies for stoking panic and anti-Russian hatred. When it did invade,

the officials denied it was at war.

俄國2月24日進犯烏克蘭之前數周形勢緊張時，俄國官員否認政府策畫這類行動，並譴責美國及其北約盟友煽動恐懼與反俄仇恨。當俄國真的入侵時，官員否認俄國在作戰。

Since then, the Kremlin has cycled through a torrent of lies to explain why it had to wage a “special military operation” against a sovereign neighbor. Drug-addled neo-Nazis. Genocide. American biological weapons factories. Birds and reptiles trained to carry pathogens into Russia. Ukrainian

forces bombing their own cities, including theaters sheltering children.

從那之後，克里姆林宮用一大堆謊言解釋，俄國何以必須對一個主權獨立的鄰國發動「特別軍事行動」。吸毒吸到糊塗的新納粹。種族滅絕。美國生物武器工廠。鳥和爬蟲類被訓練成攜帶病原體進入俄國。烏克蘭軍隊轟炸他們自己的城市，包括兒童躲藏其中的劇院。

Disinformation in wartime is as old as war itself, but today war unfolds in the age of social media and digital diplomacy. That has given Russia — and its allies in China and elsewhere — powerful means to prop up the claim that the invasion is justified, exploiting disinformation to rally its citizens at home and to discredit its enemies abroad. Truth has simply become another front in Russia’s war.

戰時的假資訊跟戰爭本身一樣古老，不過如今戰爭是在社群媒體和數位外交的時代展開，這給了俄國與它在中國大陸等地的盟友強力工具，能宣傳侵略有理的說法，並利用假訊息團結國內人民和損害國外敵人名聲。真相簡直成了俄國戰爭另一條戰線。

Using a barrage of increasingly outlandish falsehoods, President Vladimir Putin has created an alternative reality, one in which Russia is at war not with Ukraine but with a larger, more pernicious enemy in the West. Even since the war began, the lies have gotten more and more bizarre, transforming from claims that “true sovereignty” for Ukraine was possible only under Russia, made before the attacks, to those about migratory birds carrying bioweapons.

俄國總統普亭用連珠炮般日益古怪的謊言，創造出另類現實，在其中，俄國不是跟烏克蘭作戰，而是與西方更大、更惡毒的敵人作戰。在戰爭開始後，謊言變得更加怪誕，從侵略前宣稱的烏克蘭唯有在俄國統治下才可能做到「真正主權獨立」，變成候鳥攜帶生物武器。

Russia’s message has proved successful domestically, where the Kremlin’s claims go unchallenged. Surveys suggest a majority of Russians support the war effort. Internationally, the campaign has seeped into an information ecosystem that allows them to spread virulently, reaching audiences that were once harder to reach.

在克宮說法不受挑戰的國內，俄國的訊息成功了。民調顯示多數俄國人支持這場戰爭。在國際上，俄國宣傳滲入一個得以使其惡毒地散播的資訊生態系，讓以前較難接觸的觀眾收到。

As the war in Ukraine drags on, however, casualties are mounting, confronting families in Russia with the loss of fathers and sons. That could test how persuasive the Kremlin’s information campaign truly is.

不過，隨著烏克蘭戰爭拖長，傷亡人數不斷上升，使俄國家庭失去父親和兒子，那可能會考驗克宮資訊戰究竟多有說服力。

The Soviet Union sought to keep a similar veil of silence around its decadelong quagmire in Afghanistan in the 1980s, but the truth seeped into public consciousness anyway, eroding the foundation of the entire system. Two years after the last troops pulled out in 1989, the Soviet Union itself collapsed.

蘇聯曾想在1980年代占領阿富汗長達十年無法脫身的困境上，維持類似的沉默面紗，但真相終究一點一滴被公眾知曉，侵蝕整個體系基礎。1989年最後一批蘇聯軍隊撤出阿富汗，兩年後，蘇聯解體。