就在2028 飛天小黃炒作多年終有時間表

For years, flying taxis have represented an exciting but distant dream, fueled in part by industry hype. Now they have a rollout plan and a target arrival date: 2028.

多年來，飛天計程車一直是個令人興奮但遙遠的夢想，這樣的情緒部分來自業界炒作。現在他們推出計畫和上市目標日期：2028年。

In a document published on Tuesday, the Federal Aviation Administration outlined the steps that it and others need to take to usher in a competitive air taxi market in at least one location by 2028 with limited operations starting as early as 2025. The vehicles look like small airplanes or helicopters and can take off and land vertically, allowing them to operate from the middle of cities, whisking people to airports or vacation destinations like the Hamptons in New York or Cape Cod in Massachusetts.

在一份周二發表的文件中，美國聯邦航空總署概述他們和其他機構所需採取的步驟，以便在2028年前至少在一個地方開展飛天計程車競爭性市場，並最早於2025年開始有限營運。這些車輛看起來像小型飛機或直升機，能垂直起降，使他們能在市中心營運，將客戶送往機場或度假勝地，如紐約漢普頓與麻州鱈角等。

The FAA’s plan is notable because it reflects confidence that the technology is only a few years away, and because it comes from the agency that will oversee certification of the aircraft as well as the rules that pilots and companies must follow.

聯邦航空總署的計畫引人注目，因為這反映出這項科技只要再幾年就能上路的信心，也因為推出這項計畫的機構將監管這種飛機認證及制定飛行員與公司必須遵守的規則。

“These things will be coming on the scene, and our job is to try and be ahead of the curve,” said Paul Fontaine, an assistant FAA administrator who oversees the modernization of the air transportation system. The plan is intended to serve as a guide for introducing the aircraft in a way that is predictable and routine, the agency said.

監管空中運輸系統現代化業務的聯邦航空總署助理署長方田說：「這些東西將會出現，而我們的工作就是努力走在潮流前面。」該署也表示，這項計畫旨在作為一項指引，讓這種飛行器以可預測和常規方式引進。

Creating the conditions for air taxis to zip above one or more cities by 2028 will be no small task, and aircraft manufacturers will need the help of many others besides the FAA, including other federal agencies and state and local governments.

創造條件讓飛天計程車在2028年以前於一個或多個城市空中飛行，不是小事，飛行器製造商需要聯邦航空總署以外的其他協助，包括其他聯邦機構、州與地方政府。

Air taxis are likely to face resistance from local officials and residents who fear that they will be safety hazards or a nuisance. Legislation and lawsuits seeking to block their use in cities and neighborhoods could set up pitched battles.

飛天計程車可能面臨地方官員和居民抗拒，他們害怕安全隱憂和造成滋擾。尋求阻擋飛天計程車在城市和其鄰近地區使用的立法和訴訟，可能引發激戰。

But first the aircraft must be certified. Many are designed to be fully electric, though some could be powered by hydrogen or a combination of jet fuels and batteries. The aircraft are still under development by various companies and can carry only a handful of passengers. They also contain an array of new technologies and systems, many of which will have to be individually certified to meet the FAA’s standards.

但首先這種飛行器必須獲得認證。許多這類飛行器被設計成全電動，有些可由氫能或由燃料結合電池驅動。多間公司仍在開發這類飛行器，且只能運載少量乘客。它們也包含一系列新科技和系統，其中許多需要被單獨認證以達到聯邦航空總署標準。

對俄反攻不利 烏克蘭暫停以調整戰術

In the first two weeks of Ukraine’s grueling counteroffensive, as much as 20% of the weaponry it sent to the battlefield was damaged or destroyed, according to American and European officials. The toll includes some of the formidable Western fighting machines — tanks and armored personnel carriers — the Ukrainians were counting on to beat back the Russians.

美國與歐洲官員指出，烏克蘭艱困的反攻作戰前兩周，送往戰地的武器高達20%受損或毀壞。這些損失包括戰車、裝甲運兵車等部分強大的西方作戰機具，是烏克蘭賴以擊退俄軍的軍備。

The startling rate of losses dropped to about 10% in the ensuing weeks, the officials said, preserving more of the troops and machines needed for the major offensive push that the Ukrainians say is still to come.

官員表示，該項驚人的損失率在後續幾周降到約10%，使得更多軍隊和機具得以留存，以備進行烏克蘭方面宣稱尚未發動的主要攻勢。

Some of the improvement came because Ukraine changed tactics, focusing more on wearing down the Russian forces with artillery and long-range missiles than charging into enemy minefields and fire.

能有這樣的改善，部分原因是烏克蘭已改變戰術，加強聚焦在透過火砲和長射程飛彈來消耗俄國部隊，而非挺進敵方的地雷區和砲火當中。

But that good news obscures some grim realities. The losses have also slowed because the counteroffensive itself has slowed — and even halted in places — as Ukrainian soldiers struggle against Russia’s formidable defenses. And despite the losses, the Ukrainians have so far taken just 5 of the 60 miles they hope to cover to reach the sea in the south and split the Russian forces in two.

好消息的背後卻隱藏著某些殘酷現實。損失會趨緩，是因為烏軍苦於俄軍的堅實防禦，反攻行動本身就放慢，在部分地區甚至暫停。而且盡管承受這些損失，烏克蘭原本希望推進60英里，以便進軍至南方海域並將俄軍一分為二，如今進度卻只有5英里。

Russia had many months to prepare for the counteroffensive, and the front is littered with mines, tank traps and dug-in troops, while Russian reconnaissance drones and attack helicopters fly overhead with increasing frequency.

俄國有數個月時間準備因應烏克蘭反攻，如今前線遍布地雷、戰車陷阱和掘壕固守的部隊，同時俄軍的無人偵察機和攻擊直升機也更加頻繁地掠過天際。

Given those fortifications, experts say, it is not surprising that Ukraine would sustain relatively severe losses in the early stages of the campaign.

專家表示，考量到那些防禦措施，烏克蘭在作戰初步階段會承受相對嚴重的損失，並不令人意外。

Last week, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, acknowledged that there had been a brief pause in operations some weeks ago but blamed it on a lack of equipment and munitions.

上周烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基承認，數周前作戰行動曾短暫暫停，但他將其歸咎於缺乏裝備和彈藥。

American officials acknowledged that pause and said the Ukrainians had begun moving again, but more deliberately, more adept at navigating minefields and mindful of the casualty risks.

美國官員坦承確有過暫停，並表示烏克蘭方面已再度開始行動，但變得更加謹慎，度過地雷區時更加熟練，也更留意人員傷亡風險。

Military experts have long said the first 15 miles of the counteroffensive would be the hardest, as attacking troops generally need three times more power — whether in weapons, personnel or both — than defending forces.

軍事專家一向表示，反攻作戰最艱困的就是前15英里，因為進攻部隊通常需要三倍於防守部隊的戰力，不論武器、人員，或兩者皆是。

Military analysts cautioned it was still too early to draw definitive conclusions about the counteroffensive. “It does not mean that it is doomed to fail,” said Camille Grand, a defense expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations and a former NATO assistant secretary-general.

軍事分析師提醒，要對這波反攻做出最終論斷為時過早。歐洲外交關係協會國防專家、北大西洋公約組織前助理秘書長葛蘭德表示，「這並不表示這次行動敗局已定」。