川普關稅威脅 加拿大備妥銀彈回擊

The Canadian government is preparing billions of dollars in retaliatory measures on U.S. exports to Canada if President-elect Donald Trump makes good on a threat to impose tariffs on Canadian goods, setting up a potential showdown between two countries that are each other’s largest trading partners.

如果美國總統當選人川普兌現對加拿大商品的關稅威脅，加拿大政府正準備對美國出口至加拿大商品採取數十億美元報復措施，可能引發互為最大貿易夥伴的兩國攤牌。

Canada is assembling a list of measures, including tariffs on U.S. exports to Canada and levies or other restrictions on key Canadian exports to the United States, if Trump imposes a sweeping 25% tariff on Canadian goods.

若川普對加拿大商品全面課徵25%關稅，加拿大正制訂一份應對措施清單，包括對美國出口加拿大商品課徵關稅，及對出口至美國的加拿大重要商品收稅和實施其他管制。

But the government made clear that it will wait to see what Trump might do.

但加拿大政府表明，會等著看川普怎麼做。

“Everything is on the table,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said during a news conference in Ottawa. Trudeau spent most of Wednesday discussing with provincial leaders how to best prepare for potential U.S. tariffs.

加拿大總理杜魯多在渥太華的一場記者會表示：「任何事都會納入考慮。」杜魯多周三大部分時間都在和各省領袖討論，如何為美國可能課徵的關稅做最好準備。

Canada’s government is working under the assumption that Trump is serious about tariffs, which he has linked to the flow of migrants and drugs across the U.S.-Canada border.

加拿大政府假設川普對關稅是認真的，就此進行工作。川普將課徵關稅和美加邊境移民與毒品流入掛勾。

Canada has already announced a series of steps meant to beef up the border, including more personnel and technology. The government Wednesday said it was also deploying helicopters and more drones to bolster the surveillance of the shared border.

加拿大已宣布一系列旨在加強邊境管理的措施，包括增加人員和科技。加拿大政府周三表示，他們也部署直升機和更多無人機改善對共有邊境的監視。

But in more recent weeks Trump has made statements suggesting that his motivation for possible tariffs on Canadian goods may not be solely about border security. The president-elect has repeatedly spoken about Canada becoming another U.S. state, even threatening economic force to annex the country.

但最近幾周，川普發表聲明暗示，他可能對加拿大商品課徵關稅的動機或許不只是邊境安全。這個總統當選人多次表示，加拿大將成為美國一個州，甚至威脅以經濟力量併吞該國。

Trump’s comments have been met with incredulity and outrage among Canadian political leaders.

川普的談話，讓加拿大政治領袖難以置信和憤怒。

Any tariffs would violate a trade agreement among the United States, Mexico and Canada, originally known as NAFTA, which was renegotiated during Trump’s first presidency.

課徵任何關稅將違反美國、墨西哥和加拿大的貿易協定。這份協定原本被稱為北美自由貿易協定，在川普的第一個任期重新談判。

Trudeau on Wednesday said that Canada was prepared meet any aggressive economic moves by the incoming Trump administration with equal aggression.“I support the principle of a dollar-for-dollar response,” Trudeau said. Officials said that this could lead Canada to impose tariffs on goods exported to the United States.

杜魯多周三表示，加拿大準備好以對等的攻擊，應對即將上任川普政府的任何攻擊性經濟措施。杜魯多表示：「我支持等價回應原則。」官員說，這可能導致加拿大對出口至美國的商品徵收關稅。

將墨西哥毒梟列反恐目標 恐傷美國經濟

President Donald Trump’s executive order designating Mexican cartels and other criminal organizations as foreign terrorists could force some American companies to forgo doing business in Mexico rather than risk U.S. sanctions, according to former government officials and analysts — an outcome that could have a major effect on both countries given their deep economic interdependence.

美國政府前官員和分析家指出，總統川普的行政命令將墨西哥毒梟和其他犯罪組織認定為外國恐怖分子，可能迫使一些美國公司放棄在墨西哥做生意，而非冒著受美國制裁的風險。有鑑於美墨兩國深厚的經濟相互依存，這個結果可能產生重大影響。

The executive order is intended to apply maximum pressure on Mexico to rein in its dangerous drug trade. The designation, more generally, also gives his administration more power to impose economic penalties and travel restrictions, and potentially even to take military action in foreign countries.

這項行政命令旨在向墨西哥施加最大壓力，以抑制其危險的毒品交易。更廣泛而言，這項認定也給他的政府更多權力實行經濟懲罰和旅行管制，甚至可能在外國採取軍事行動。

Yet, disentangling cartel operations from U.S. interests in Mexico could be immensely complicated. Mexico is the United States’ largest trade partner of goods, and many American companies have manufacturing operations there.

然而，將毒梟運作和美國在墨西哥的利益分開，可能極其複雜。墨西哥是美國最大的商品貿易夥伴，且許多美國公司在那裡有製造業活動。

Even more complicated, these criminal networks have extended their operations far beyond drug trafficking and human smuggling. They are now embedded in a wide swath of the legal economy, from avocado farming to the country’s billion-dollar tourism industry, making it hard to be absolutely sure that American companies are isolated from cartel activities.

更複雜的是，這些犯罪網已將他們的活動拓展至毒品販運和人口走私以外範圍。他們現在深植於廣泛的合法經濟，從酪梨種植到該國數十億美元的觀光業，以致很難完全確定的將美國公司和毒梟活動隔絕。

“This has come up in previous administrations across the political spectrum and from members of Congress who have wanted to do it,” said Samantha Sultoon, a senior adviser on sanctions policy and threat finance in the Trump and Biden administrations.

川普和拜登政府制裁政策和威脅金融問題資深顧問珊曼莎．蘇爾頓表示：「過去各政治光譜的政府和曾想這麼做的國會成員，都曾提出這種做法。」

“But no one has done it because they have looked at what the implications would be on trade, economic and financial relationships between Mexico and the United States,” she added.”

她補充說：「但沒有人這麼做，因為他們檢視了可能為美墨貿易、經濟和金融關係帶來的後果。」

The foreign terrorist designation could lead to severe penalties — including substantial fines, asset seizures and criminal charges — on companies and individuals found to be paying ransom or extortion payments. U.S. companies could also be ensnared by standard payments made to Mexican companies that a cartel controls without the American companies’ knowledge.

外國恐怖分子的認定，可能導致嚴重處罰，被發現支付贖金和勒索款項的公司和個人，可能被處以巨額罰款、資產凍結和刑事指控。美國公司也可能在不知情狀況下，向被毒梟控制的墨西哥公司支付一般款項而陷入困境。

Cartels use the legal economy to launder money, which could mean that unwitting employees working at a resort or an avocado packing company could technically be on the cartel payroll but not know it.

毒梟利用合法經濟洗錢，這意味在度假村或酪梨包裝公司工作的不知情員工，技術上可能名列毒梟的員工名單但不自知。