從數據看好萊塢今夏的票房落差

This was supposed to be the summer when the North American box office returned to form — finally from the pandemic slump.

這本該是北美票房終於從疫情低迷中恢復，回歸正軌的夏天。

“We believe that a dramatic reawakening of the industrywide domestic box office has begun,” Adam Aron, chief executive of AMC Entertainment, the continent’s largest theater operator, gleefully told analysts in May. He predicted that Hollywood’s summer movies would be “barn burners, one after another.”

「我們相信，行業整體的國內票房已開始顯著復甦，」北美最大影院運營商AMC娛樂公司執行長阿隆5月興奮地對分析師表示。他預測好萊塢的夏季電影將「一部接一部地掀起熱潮」。

Moviegoers, alas, were not cooperative. Multiplexes in the United States and Canada had their worst summer since 1981, after adjusting for inflation and excluding the COVID pandemic years, when many theaters were closed for long periods.

然而，電影觀眾並未買帳。美國和加拿大的多廳影院迎來了自1981年以來最糟糕的夏天，這是經過通膨調整並排除疫情期間電影院長期停業的結果。

Is it time for Hollywood to concede that a lot of moviegoers in North America are never coming back? That movie theaters have permanently lost 20% to 25% of their customers?

好萊塢是否該承認，北美的許多電影觀眾再也不會回來了？電影院是否已永久失去了20%至25%的顧客？

Those questions, which started as horrified whispers in studio hallways last year, have become more openly discussed in recent months.

這些問題去年在電影公司內部走廊中還是驚恐的低語，近幾個月的討論已經浮上檯面。

Weekly ticket sales over the summer highlight the concern. There were only two weeks when theaters in North America collected more than $300 million. Theaters exceeded that threshold nine weeks in the summer of 2019 when adjusting for inflation.

夏季的每周票房數據凸顯這種擔憂。整個夏天，只有2周的北美影院票房收入超過3億美元。而2019年夏天，經通膨調整後，影院有9周超過這一門檻。

Even in 2024, also a year in which there were only two $300 million-plus weeks, total ticket sales for the summer were higher because of bigger hits, including “Inside Out 2” and “Deadpool & Wolverine.”

即便在2024年，同樣只有2周票房超過3億美元，但由於《腦筋急轉彎2》和《死侍與金鋼狼》等大片表現出色，夏季總票房仍高於今年。電影公司面臨的部分挑戰在於行銷：由於媒體碎片化，透過廣告觸及大眾觀眾變得更加困難。

Part of the challenge for movie studios is marketing: Reaching a mass audience with ads for new movies has become harder, a result of media fragmentation.

To cope, studios have increased their reliance on franchises with established fan bases. Over the summer, 26 movies collected at least $20 million in North America. Twenty of them were franchises of some sort — sequels, remakes, spinoffs, reboots or based on a hit video game.

為應對這一問題，電影公司愈來愈依賴擁有穩定粉絲基礎的系列電影。這個夏天，26部電影在北美票房至少達到2000萬美元，其中20部屬於系列電影：續集、重製、外傳、重啟或改編自熱門電玩遊戲。

But almost all of Hollywood’s franchises have been so overworked that they are delivering diminishing returns. More than half of the franchises released this summer have done worse than previous iterations.

但好萊塢幾乎所有的系列電影都已被過度開發，導致利潤遞減。本季推出的系列電影中，超過一半的表現不如前作。

Nothing is more valuable to a movie studio than a revived franchise. Disney successfully rebooted “Fantastic Four” superhero movie series, albeit on a more modest scale.

對電影公司而言，沒有什麼比復甦的系列電影更有價值。迪士尼成功重啟了《驚奇四超人》超級英雄電影系列，雖然規模沒那麼大。

Which is to say: Hollywood’s franchise strategy is not going anywhere. As of now, studios have at least 14 franchise films scheduled for summer 2026.

易言之，好萊塢的系列電影策略不會改變。目前，電影公司為2026年夏天安排了至少14部系列電影。

美高三生閱讀成績創30年新低

The reading skills of American high school seniors are the worst they have been in three decades, according to new federal testing data, a worrying sign for teenagers as they face an uncertain job market and an information landscape challenged by artificial intelligence.

新的聯邦測驗數據顯示，美國高中三年級學生的閱讀能力跌到30年來最差水準，這對於就業市場前景茫茫與AI衝擊資訊環境的青少年來說，是令人憂心的跡象。

In math, 12th graders had the lowest performance since 2005.

數學方面，12年級生的表現也是自2005年以來最差。

The results, from the National Assessment of Educational Progress, long regarded as the nation’s most reliable, gold-standard exam, showed that about a third of the 12th graders who were tested last year did not have basic reading skills.

「全國教育進展評量」長期被視為全美最可靠、黃金標準的測驗，結果顯示去年受測的12年級生中，大約有3成缺乏基本閱讀能力。

It was a sign that, among other skills, they may not be able to determine the purpose of a political speech. In math, nearly half of the test takers scored below the basic level, meaning they may not have mastered such skills as using percentages to solve real-world problems.

這顯示在其他技能方面，他們可能無法判斷一場政治演講的意圖。在數學方面，近半數的受測學生得分低於基本水準，這意味他們恐怕連像是用百分比解決現實問題的技能，都尚未掌握。

The test scores are the first of their kind to be released since the COVID-19 pandemic upended education. They also arrive at a time when Americans overall are abandoning printed text for screen time and video-dominated social media, which experts have linked to declining academics.

這些測驗分數是自新冠疫情顛覆教育以來首次公布的同類結果。數據公布的同時，正值美國人普遍放棄紙本文字，轉向螢幕時間與以影片為主的社群媒體，專家認為這與學業下滑有關連。

The NAEP test results indicate “a stark decline” in performance, said Matthew Soldner, the acting commissioner of the National Center for Education Statistics, the arm of the federal Education Department that administers the tests.

隸屬教育部的國家教育統計中心負責執行測驗，代理主任索德納稱「NAEP測驗顯示表現『明顯下滑』」。

Test score drops were probably caused in part by the disruptions of the pandemic, including illness, school closures and remote learning. The seniors included in the new federal data were in eighth grade when the virus transformed daily life in March 2020. Millions of teenagers spent a year or more learning online.

成績下滑部分原因可能是疫情造成的干擾，包括疾病、學校關閉與遠距學習。這次聯邦數據涵蓋的12年級生，在2020年3月疫情改變日常生活時，他們還只是8年級生。數百萬名青少年花了一年或更長時間在線上學習。

Even so, data from previous testing shows that learning declines — especially among struggling students — began several years before the pandemic. Experts have pointed to a wide range of possible explanations.

即便如此，先前的測驗數據顯示，尤其是學習困難的學生，早在疫情前幾年成績就開始下滑。專家指出，可能存在多種解釋。

Over the last decade, both adults and children began to replace reading time with screen time, social media and, increasingly, streaming video. And over the same period, the federal government and many states relaxed policies that were intended to hold schools and teachers accountable for student learning.

在過去10年，大人與小孩都開始以螢幕時間、社群媒體，日益增加的串流影片，取代閱讀時間。同一時期，聯邦政府與許多州政府鬆綁了原本用來要求學校與教師對學生成績負責的政策。

The new test data also includes eighth grade science scores. Performance in 2024 declined, with 38% of students scoring below the basic level, compared with 33% in 2019.

新的測驗數據還包含8年級的科學分數。2024年的表現出現下滑，38%的學生低於基本水準，2019年是33%。