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【News Takeaway】生不生小孩，也許你會受周圍的人影響
人們生不生小孩，是否會因為自己周圍的人而被影響？這篇新聞從日本一個名為奈義的高生育率小鎮開始，談「同儕效應」對生育率影響的可能性。除了生小孩，生活中的習慣從抽菸、喝酒到肥胖程度，都有可能受到社交環境所影響。這不禁讓人懷疑，你的種種抉擇，真的如自己所想是出於自我的意志嗎？
來源： The New York Times
難度：3
閱讀時間：4
Could Peer Influence Be a Cause of the Global Baby Bust?
同儕影響是造成全球嬰兒潮的原因之一嗎？
By Peter Coy
There is a town in western Japan named Nagi that’s famous for making babies. Its fertility rate in 2021 was 2.68 lifetime births per woman, compared with 1.3 for Japan as a whole, according to an article in The Wall Street Journal that my Opinion colleague Jessica Grose recently cited. Delegations from elsewhere in Japan and abroad have come to Nagi to learn its secret formula. Is it the free medical care for all children? The affordable child care? The cash gifts to new mothers?
在日本西部有一個叫奈義的鎮子，以生小孩著稱。根據我的觀點欄目同事Jessica Grose近日引用過的一篇《華爾街日報》文章，2021年這裡的生育率是每名女性生育2.68個孩子，相比之下日本總體的數字是1.3。日本各地乃至海外紛紛派人到奈義取經。是因為所有孩子都有免費醫療嗎？成本低廉的兒童照顧？剛生育的母親可以得到現金饋贈？
I’ve been considering another theory. Maybe people in Nagi are having babies because other people in Nagi are having babies. That would be what economists call a “peer effect.” We are social animals and we take our cues from family, friends and sometimes even passers-by. Peer effects could help explain the decline in fertility as well: It could be that in most of the world, people are having fewer babies partly because other people are having fewer babies. That would explain why so many towns and countries are putting in Nagi-like pronatalist measures but not getting Nagi-like results.
我在考慮另一種解釋。也許奈義人要小孩是因為其他奈義人要小孩。也就是經濟學家所說的「同儕效應」。我們是社會性動物，會受家人、朋友、有時甚至包括路人的影響。同儕效應也可以解釋生育率的下降：可能在世界上大多數地方，生育的減少部分是因為其他人生的孩子數量減少了。這就解釋了為什麼很多城鎮和國家也有跟奈義一樣的生育激勵措施，但沒能產生奈義那樣的效果。
Researchers have claimed to find peer effects on obesity, smoking and drinking, so it’s plausible that they influence fertility. We all know of siblings, in-laws and friends who have their first children around the same time. George Akerlof, a Nobel laureate economist from the University of California, Berkeley, wrote in a 1997 paper in the journal Econometrica that “social decisions — such as the demand for education, the practice of discrimination, the decision to marry, divorce and bear children, and the decision whether or not to commit crimes — are not simple choices based primarily on individual considerations.”
研究人員稱在肥胖、吸煙和飲酒方面都能找到同儕效應，因此影響生育也說得通。我們都認識某些同胞、姻親和朋友是差不多同時生下第一個孩子的。加州大學柏克萊分校經濟學家、諾貝爾獎得主George Akerlof在1997年發表於《計量經濟學》的一篇論文中說，「社會性決策」——比如教育需求、歧視舉動、是否結婚、離婚和要小孩、是否犯罪——並非主要基於個人考量的簡單抉擇。
Another problem is whether peer effects are real. Other explanations for high or low fertility are also plausible, after all. Maybe friends behave the same way because they’re alike, not because one influences the other. Or maybe they’re all influenced by some outside factor rather than each other. Dozens of such factors have been suggested: Working parents don’t get the support they need. Young people can’t afford a dwelling that’s big enough for children, or they’re saddled with student debt. The opportunity cost of having children is higher for people with higher education and better earnings prospects. Or maybe women simply can’t find suitable mates.
還有一個問題是同儕效應是否真的存在。畢竟還有一些理論也能對生育率的高或低給出合理的解釋。也許朋友之間有類似的行為是因為他們本來就是相似的人，並非對彼此有什麼影響。還有許多類似的因素被提出來過：在工作的父母沒有得到充分的支持。年輕人無力負擔足夠容納孩子的居住空間，或被學生債所累。受教育程度越高，收入前景越好，要孩子的機會成本就越高。還有也許根本只是女性找不到合適的伴侶。
1. fertility rate n. 生育率
The fertility rate has been declining steadily over the past few decades.
過去幾十年來，生育率一直在持續下降。
2. as a whole 整體上；總體來說
As a whole, the project was a success.
整體而言，這個專案是成功的。
3. delegations n. 代表團；委派
The delegations from the two countries met to discuss trade relations.
兩國代表團會面，討論貿易關係。
4. secret formula n. 秘方
The company's success is based on a secret formula for their product.
這家公司的成功基於他們產品的秘密配方。
5. peer effect 同儕效應
Studies have shown that peer effect can have a strong impact on academic performance.
研究表明，同儕效應對學業表現有著強烈的影響。
6. take our cues 從…中得到提示或靈感
We can take our cues from the success of other companies in the industry.
我們可以從業內其他公司的成功中得到提示。
7. passers-by 路人
The passers-by looked on in amazement as the street performer juggled fire.
路人們驚嘆地看著街頭藝人玩火。
8. pronatalist adj. 崇尚生育的；支持生育的
The government's pronatalist policies aim to increase the birth rate.
政府的支持生育政策旨在增加出生率。
9. plausible adj. 似乎真實的；似乎有理的
The suspect's alibi seemed plausible, but further investigation revealed it to be false.
嫌疑人的不在場證明似乎有道理，但進一步調查顯示這是虛假的。
10. in-laws n. 姻親；婆家或娘家的親屬
I get along well with my in-laws.
我和我的姻親相處得很好。
11. laureate n. 得獎者
The Nobel laureate gave a speech at the university.
諾貝爾獎得主在大學發表了演說。
12. dwelling n. 住所；居所
They were forced to leave their old dwelling and find a new one.
他們被迫離開他們的舊住所，尋找新的住所。
13. saddled with v. 負擔；承擔
The company is saddled with too much debt.
這家公司背負著太多的債務。
14. earnings prospects n. 收入前景；賺錢前景
The college major you choose can greatly affect your earnings prospects.
你選擇的大學科系會對你的收入前景有很大影響。
史嘉琳《英語思維50講》每個人的英語基本功，看課程
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