行動運算將是我們這一代最具破壞性的科技，它所領導的革命正快速發生。農業改革花了數千年才上軌道；工業革命費時幾個世紀才結束。但在行動科技刺激下，資訊革命可能只要幾十年就能改造整個世界。☆《今日美國》、《財富》、《華盛頓人雜誌》等媒體好評推薦
【文章提供／大師輕鬆讀】
關於網路浪潮的破壞力，幾乎都經過誇大膨風，影響層面其實只達整體經濟的 5% 左右──大多是 20 到 45 歲依賴電腦工作的人士。反觀目前逐漸成形的行動浪潮，我們可以合理預估，10 年內會有 50 億支智慧型手機和 50 億台平板電腦的使用量。一旦預言成真，行動浪潮將觸及 6、7 歲到至少 75 或 80 歲的每一個人。不僅如此，全天 24 小時都可以聯繫每個人。這種情境下，我們可以合理預測，未來 10 年約 50% 的世界經濟會重新改造──使得行動浪潮成為科技史上前所未有的最大轉變。
For all its much vaunted disruptiveness, the Internet Wave really has impacted only about 5 percent of the overall economy – mainly people aged 20 to 45 who worked on computers. By contrast, if you look at the Mobile Wave which is now taking shape, it’s reasonable to predict that within 10 years there will be 5 billion smart phones and 5 billion tablet computers hooked up. Once that happens, the Mobile Wave will touch everybody from ages 6 or 7 years old up to at least age 75 or 80. What’s more, everyone will be hooked up 24 hours a day. Under that scenario, it’s reasonable to project around 50 percent of the world’s economy will be remade over the next ten years – making the Mobile Wave by far the biggest transition the world has ever experienced in the history of technology.
行動運算技術將瓦解長期以來影響消費者、企業、政府和全球經濟的行為和體制。
Mobile computing technology will disrupt long-standing behaviors and institutions affecting consumers, business, governments, and global economy.
【關鍵思惟】
「在智慧型手機、平板電腦和行動通訊基地台的協助下，開發中國家正大步躍進 21 世紀。我非常確信，對全球經濟而言，將工業先進大國的教育──以及關鍵的時間敏感性資訊──傳達給相形下僅及千分之一的蕞爾小國裡每個人的能力，將成為改變賽局的關鍵。」
「這兩股力量相互結合，形成了行動浪潮。洶湧的潮水擊倒了企業、政府、大學、非營利機構以及社會幾乎每個層面。我們可以控制這些基礎力量，往好或往壞的方向發展。身為大型公開上市公司的創辦人和執行長，我可以向你保證，這股浪潮可以適當駕馭，協助你拓展品牌、建立事業。但從另一面來看，你也可以忽視這股浪潮，任由公司外部人士控制──任其扯破你的品牌，摧毀你的事業。我個人認為，行動結合社群軟體網路的力量，將在未來 10 年改變全球 50% 的國內生產毛額。這股力量將逐漸增強，達到改造企業、產業和整體經濟的規模。」
──麥可．賽勒
【Key Thoughts】
“Developing nations are leap-frogging into the twenty-first century with the help of smartphones and tablets and cell towers. I firmly believe this will be a game-changer for the global economy: the ability to deliver a First World education— as well as critical, time-sensitive information— to nearly everyone for a thousand times less capital.”
“These are forces that combine to form the Mobile Wave, a surging tidal force bearing down on corporations, governments, universities, non-profits, and nearly every facet of society. These fundamental forces can either be harnessed for good or bad. As a founder and CEO of a large publicly traded company, I can assure you that they can be harnessed to help you grow your brand and build your business. They, alternatively, can be ignored and be harnessed by someone else— someone out to tear down your brand and destroy your business. I personally believe that the combined forces of mobile and social software networks will transform 50 percent of the world’s GDP in the coming decade. They are reaching a crescendo level that will remake businesses, industries, and entire economies.”
–Michael Saylor
本期介紹的《行動浪潮》（The Mobile Wave）作者馬麥可．賽勒（Michael Saylor）是微策略（MicroStrategy）執行長，是一家公開掛牌的企業智慧軟體暨服務公司。賽勒身兼科學歷史學家及技術工程師，曾接受電視節目「60分鐘」訪問，《新聞周刊》、《時代雜誌》、《岩頁》、《紐約客》與《華盛頓郵報》皆曾報導過他。畢業於麻省理工學院。
【完整內容請見《大師輕鬆讀》No.455】
