福岡孝純應該就是日本經濟再動起來需要的人。在小型網路媒體公司任藝術總監，福岡過著出手闊綽的社交生活，兼職DJ的他常在東京時髦的澀谷音樂商店買唱片，固定在外吃飯喝酒。

But his salary has barely budged in recent years. So he is spending every yen he earns.

但這幾年薪水文風不動，因此他花掉賺得的每一文錢。

“I’m not saving,” said Mr. Fukuoka, 30. “There are people my age who are married with kids and have their own houses, but I don’t have any of that.”

30歲的福岡說：「我不存錢，同年紀的人有的結婚、生小孩和擁有自己的房子，但我都沒有。」

It is an increasingly common refrain in Japan – and one that complicates efforts to revitalize the country’s economy.

這種現象在日本日益普遍，也讓復甦經濟的努力更為困難。

The country’s savings rate, long one of the highest, is now below zero. By comparison, the savings rate in Germany is forecast to be near 10 percent this year.

日本的儲蓄率一向排名世界第一，現在卻是零以下。反觀德國今年的儲蓄率預估接近10%。

For decades, many Japanese hoarded cash, especially after World War II, when protections like unemployment insurance and public pensions were scarce.

數十年來，許多日本人都有儲蓄習慣，特別是二戰後，當時像失業保險和年金這類保障極其匱乏。

New Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is trying to inject life into the lackluster economy, in part by getting people to spend more.

現在，日本首相安倍晉三正試圖為了無生氣的經濟注入活力，方法之一就是鼓勵民眾提高消費。

Yet stagnant wages mean many cannot do so without shortchanging their futures. Japan’s large aging population – a quarter of the population is now over 65 – is already spending saving, and younger people aren’t filling the void.

但薪資不動如山，意謂若考慮到未來，許多人就無法響應這項呼籲。日本龐大的老年人口（四分之一人口逾65歲）已在花用儲蓄，年輕一代又無法填補缺口。

About 40 percent of unmarried adults do not save, nor do 30 percent of families, according to the Central Council for Financial Services Information, a research group A decade ago, the ratio for both groups was about 10 percentage points lower.

據研究團體「金融廣報中央委員會」統計，日本約40%未婚成人及30%家庭是月光族，比10年前各多10個百分點。

Japan’s drop in savings has coincided with an erosion in pay and job security for many workers, especially younger ones.

日人儲蓄減少適值許多工人薪資與工作保障下降之際，尤其是年輕人。

Recently announced pay increases at Toyota, Panasonic and others apply to unionized, full-time employees. Many who don’t belong to that group aren’t spending more; they just have less to set aside. Now, there are growing fears about the ability of an overburdened pension system to support them in retirement.

最近豐田、松下等公司宣布加薪，但僅及於加入工會的全職員工。不屬於這群人的許多員工仍然無法多花錢；而且能存的錢更少。如今，大家還愈來愈擔心，負擔過重的年金系統無法支撐他們的退休生活。

Mitsuaki Yokoyama, who writes best-selling books on how to save money, promises to help readers with low incomes stabilize their finances. In the past, his audience was people in their 50s and 60s.

橫山光昭著有多本教人如何存錢的暢銷書，承諾幫助低收入讀者穩定財務狀況。以往，他的讀者多是五、六十歲的人。

“Now there are more young people,” he said. “Their salaries aren’t going up and they don’t know what to do.”

他說：「現在有較多的年輕人。他們薪資不漲，不知如何是好。」

Wages have been stuck at the levels of two decades ago.

日本薪資一直停留在20年前的水平。

“Between my wife and I, we have two incomes, so I feel like we should be able to save more,” said Kozo Shimoda, 37, who manages the online shopping site of an apparel company. “But our savings isn’t increasing, so I don’t feel satisfied or secure.”

37歲的下田耕三管理一家服裝公司的網購網站，他說：「我和妻子有兩份薪水，我以為我們應該可以儲蓄更多。但我們的儲蓄不見增加，所以我不滿意，也沒有安全感。」

The national household savings rate slipped to minus 1.3 percent in the last fiscal year, according to the government. The situation adds an extra layer of complexity to the task facing Mr. Abe.

政府資料顯示，上一會計年度全國家庭儲蓄下滑至負1.3%，這為安倍復甦經濟的任務又添增另一層複雜性。

Japan isn’t about to run out of spare cash soon. About 1,400 trillion yen, or $11.5 trillion, of household financial assets remain tucked away. One goal of Mr. Abe’s economic program is to get this idle cash back into the hands of individuals in the form of wage increases or higher returns to investors.

日本並非不久就會耗盡儲蓄。日本的家庭儲蓄金融資產仍有約1400兆日圓，或11.5兆美元。安倍經濟計畫的目標之一，即是讓這些閒置現金以加薪或提高投資報酬的方式，重回個人手中。

But Mr. Abe’s aim is a delicate one, because the same pile of savings is supporting Japan’s huge government debt.

不過，安倍的目標並不容易達成，因為同樣一批儲蓄也支撐著政府的龐大債務。

Naohiko Baba, the chief Japan economist at Goldman Sachs, worries what will happen if both households and companies stop saving. At the equivalent of two and a half years of economic output, Japan’s debt load is the heaviest in the world. Yet about 90 percent of the debt is held locally, meaning that Japan is, in effect, lending to itself.

高盛首席日本經濟學家馬場直彥擔心家庭和企業停止儲蓄的後果。日本國債已相當於該國兩年半的經濟產值，債務負擔全球最重。不過，這項債務約九成是本國持有，意謂日本實際上是借錢給自己。

Economists say that is one reason Japan has avoided the kind of bond market pressure that has sent less indebted countries like Greece into crisis.

經濟學家說，這是日本得以避開債券市場壓力的原因之一，債市壓力已讓負債較低國家如希臘陷入危機。

Mr. Baba said Japan could run short of the savings it needs to fund the debt locally by about 2020. After that, it would need to turn to foreign investors – a potentially destabilizing shift.

馬場說，日本資助國債所需儲蓄約莫會在2020年出現缺口。其後日本即須向外國投資人借貸，這是一個潛在的不穩定變化。

“Once we have to rely on foreign investors to finance the debt,” he said, “that could be the beginning of a disaster for Japan.”

他說：「一旦我們必須仰賴外國投資人融通債務，這會是日本災難的開端。」

【王麗娟譯】

伊士曼．柯達位於紐約州羅徹斯特、占地525公項的商業園區曾矗立約200棟建築，現在80棟拆了，59棟賣了。60歲的泰瑞．塔柏是幹了34年的忠實員工，仍在留下的一棟建築物中工作，拆除大樓的瓦礫就在不遠處。

Mr. Taber oversees research and development at Kodak. Many people might be surprised to know that Kodak is still in business at all, much less employing someone in the hopeful-sounding enterprise of developing new technology ideas. But if the film company, which emerged from bankruptcy in 2013, has any light in its future, Mr. Taber is likely to have something to do with it.

塔柏在柯達負責研發部門。許多人想不到柯達仍在運作，更別說還雇人從事聽來充滿希望的新科技開發。但如果這家2013年破產後重新站起的軟片公司前途有任何希望，大概都跟塔柏有關。

In basement labs, some of the 300 scientists and engineers who work for Mr. Taber are studying nanoparticle wonder inks, cheap sensors that can be embedded in packaging to indicate whether meats or medicines have spoiled, and touch screens that could make smartphones cheaper.

在地下室的實驗室，塔柏手下300位科學家和工程師中的一些人正在研究奈米分子神奇墨水，可嵌入包裝以顯示肉類或藥品是否變質的低價感應器，以及讓智慧手機更便宜的觸控螢幕。

Much of this is old stuff, left over from the company’s glory days. But Mr. Taber’s boss hopes that somewhere in those projects there might be a nugget of gold.

這些研究多非新創，而是這家公司輝煌時期留下的。不過塔柏的老闆希望能在這些計畫的某處挖到金塊。

“I’m mining the history of this company for its underlying technologies,” said Jeff Clarke, 53, who became Kodak’s chief executive last year. Mr. Clarke has no delusions that Kodak could bring those technologies to market on its own; it will need corporate partners to make actual products. “We’ll never be able to prosecute the value of our intellectual property with Kodak-branded sales,” he said in an office in the same tower where George Eastman once looked out on his global tech empire.

53歲的傑夫．克拉克去年出任柯達執行長，他說：「我正在挖掘這家公司的歷史，尋找潛藏的技術。」他並不奢望柯達能獨力把這些技術帶進市場，它需要企業夥伴製成實際商品。他在辦公室中說：「靠著柯達品牌產品的銷售，永遠無法讓我們的智慧財產發揮它的價值。」喬治．伊士曼當年曾從同一棟高樓眺望他的全球科技帝國。

Kodak is to digging deep into a legacy of innovation in the photography business and seeing if its remaining talent in optics and chemistry can be turned into new money in other industries.

柯達正深入挖掘在攝影產業的創新遺產，看看能否把光學和化學方面殘餘的才能在其他產業化為新財源。

For Kodak, the advent of digital photography was ruinous. Today it has $2 billion in annual sales, compared with $19 billion in 1990 when consumer film was king. It now has 8,000 employees worldwide; it had 145,000 at its peak.

對柯達而言，數位攝影的來臨具毀滅性。消費用底片稱王的1990年，柯達年營業額達190億美元，如今僅有20億美元。目前全球員工8000人，顛峰時期有14萬5000人。

Since emerging from bankruptcy, the company has mostly served niche film markets – there are still a few directors who refuse to shoot digital. Much of its revenue comes from legacy businesses. For Kodak’s new chief executive, along with veterans like Mr. Taber, the key to survival is in its research legacy, thousands of patents and a coterie of scientists who are making new discoveries.

這家公司自破產東山再起後，大多服務專業底片市場－仍有一些電影導演拒絕數位拍片。它的多數營收來自舊產業。對於柯達新執行長，以及塔柏這樣的資深員工來說，生存關鍵在於它的研究資產，數以千計的專利，加上一群持續有新發現的科學家。

At the research lab, a laser prints a 256-count mesh of silver wires, thinner than a credit card, in one second. That technology could be the basis of a new kind of phone screen, cheaper and more useful than the touch screen. It is work that Mr. Taber and his veteran team are clearly proud of.

在研究室，一台雷射機器一秒就能印出256針的銀線網，比一張信用卡還薄。這項技術可作為新型手機螢幕的基礎，比觸控螢幕更便宜，也更實用，塔柏和他的資深團隊顯然引以為傲。

“People ask me why I’m still here,” he said. “It’s because I see the possibilities.”

他說：「人們問我為何還在這裡，因為我看到了可能性。」

If any future is coming for Kodak, it had better hurry up.

如果柯達前途仍有可為，它最好加快腳步。

Mr. Clarke is impatient. He came to Kodak a year ago and says he was shocked that the company had done so little to capitalize on the work of its scientists. Kodak’s technology for packaging sensors, he noted, was developed years ago. No one had figured out what to do with it. “We missed enormous opportunities,” he said.

克拉克沒什麼耐心了。他一年前來到柯達，非常驚訝這家公司在利用科學家的成果方面做得如此之少。他指出，柯達的包材感測器技術多年前就開發出來，卻沒人想出該如何利用。他說：「我們錯過了大好機會。」

Kodak has a market capitalization of about $800 million. He noted that GoPro, a maker of cameras for extreme sports, is worth more than six times as much.

柯達的市值約8億美元，他指出，極限運動相機製造商GoPro市值是柯達的6倍以上。

With $750 million in cash, a 2014 net loss of $114 million and possibly more losses this year, the company needs to find partners. Among his partners for future business is Bobst, a $1.3 billion Swiss company that makes machinery to manufacture cardboard boxes. Bobst is interested in using Kodak’s digital printing technology to personalize packaging, said Jean-Pascal Bobst, the chief executive. “It could be revolutionary for corrugated boxes.”

柯達有7.5億美元現金，2014年淨虧損1.14億美元，今年可能更多，它需要夥伴。未來商業夥伴中的博斯特是市值13億美元的瑞士公司，生產製作紙箱的機器，它對將柯達的數位印刷技術用於客製化包裝很感興趣，執行長尚-巴斯卡．博斯特說：「這可能是瓦楞紙箱的大變革。」

Kodak diversified into pharmaceuticals, paying $5.1 billion for Sterling Drug in 1988. Kodak’s researchers invented digital photography and put the technology in professional cameras in the 1990s. There were plans to move to digital consumer cameras, but the cash Kodak made on traditional photography made it complacent. By 2001, even before smartphone cameras, film sales started to fall by 20 to 30 percent every year. The 3.5 billion meters of film Kodak manufactured as late as 2007, enough to circle the earth about 88 times, has shrunk 96 percent.

柯達當年也投資於製藥業，1988年以51億美元買下施德齡製藥。1990年代柯達研究人員發明數位攝影術，並把這項科技用於專業相機。當時原本有生產消費者數位相機的計畫，但是柯達在傳統攝影領域賺的錢讓它自滿。到了2001年，甚至在智慧手機附帶相機之前，底片銷售額開始每年下滑二至三成。2007年柯達製造的軟片總長仍有35億公尺，足以繞地球88圈，迄今已縮減96％。

At an October meeting of 80 employees, Mr. Clarke was asked when Kodak’s 20-plus years of layoffs would end. “My answer, of course, was ‘Never,’ ” he recalled. “No individual company can say that things aren’t going to change.”

克拉克去年10月在和80名員工的一場會議中被問到，柯達長達20多年的裁員何時結束，他回想：「我的答案當然是『永遠不會結束』，沒有任何一家公司敢說事情絕不會改變。」

In December, Mr. Clarke made good on his word, with more restructuring and layoffs.

克拉克說到做到，去年12月宣布進一步重組及裁員。

【莊蕙嘉譯】