In Germany and France, authorities thwarted terrorists’ plots to attack with the deadly poison ricin. In eastern Syria, the Islamic State group continued its retreat under stepped-up assaults by Kurdish militia and Iraqi pilots. And extremists in Yemen, Somalia and Libya were targeted by U.S. airstrikes.

在德國和法國，當局破獲了恐怖分子以致命毒藥蓖麻毒素發動攻擊的陰謀。在敘利亞東部，伊斯蘭國在庫德族民兵和伊拉克飛行員加強攻擊下持續敗退。葉門、索馬利亞和利比亞的極端分子成為美國空襲的目標。

That spate of action, over the past few weeks alone, illustrates the shifting and enduring threat from Islamic extremism around the world that will last long after the Islamic State is defeated on the battlefield.

這一連串行動全發生在過去幾周而已，它說明了全球伊斯蘭極端主義威脅的改變和持久性，這種威脅將在伊斯蘭國於戰場被擊敗後，繼續存在很長一段時間。

From the scheming of lone extremists with no apparent connections to terrorist groups, like the ricin plots, to fighters aligned with the Islamic State or al-Qaida in more than two dozen countries, terrorist threats are as complex and diverse as ever, U.S. and other Western intelligence officials said in interviews.

美國和其他西方國家情報官員受訪時說，從與恐怖組織沒有明顯關聯的孤狼極端分子的陰謀，如蓖麻毒素計畫，到20多個國家中與伊斯蘭國或凱達恐怖組織掛鉤的戰士，恐怖分子的威脅仍一如既往，複雜且多元。

The Islamic State, in particular, is adapting to setbacks and increasingly using the tools of globalization — including bitcoin and encrypted communications — to take their fight underground and rally adherents around the world.

尤其是伊斯蘭國，正從挫折中學習因應，且越來越會使用全球化的工具，包括比特幣和加密通訊，將他們的戰鬥地下化，並且在全球凝聚追隨者。

“If you look across the globe, the cohesive nature of the enterprise for ISIS has been maintained,” Russell Travers, acting head of the National Counterterrorism Center, said in an interview, using another name for the Islamic State.

國家反恐中心的代理主任拉塞爾．崔佛斯受訪時使用伊斯蘭國的另一個名稱說：「若從全球角度觀察，ISIS企業的凝聚力已獲得維繫。」

“There’s not been any breaking up, at least not as yet,” Travers said. “The message continues to resonate with way too many people.”

崔佛斯說：「沒有任何瓦解，至少目前還沒有。這項訊息持續引起太多人的共鳴。」

The Pentagon’s latest defense strategy elevates Russia and China above terrorism in the hierarchy of national threats. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis met late last month with the four-star commanders of U.S. Special Operations forces and troops in Africa to discuss options for halving the number of counterterrorism forces on the continent over the next three years, and assigning them new missions.

美國五角大廈最新的國防戰略，把俄羅斯和中國列為位階高於恐怖主義的國家威脅。美國國防部長吉姆．馬提斯上月底會見了美國特種作戰部隊和非洲部隊的四星指揮官們，討論了未來三年將非洲大陸反恐部隊數量減半的各種選項，並為他們分派新任務。

Yet many counterterrorism specialists voiced concern that refocusing resources and political capital could go too far and give violent extremists time and space to regroup and rebound — much as the Islamic State did in 2013, emerging from the ashes of al-Qaida in Iraq.

然而許多反恐專家擔心，調整資源和政治資本的配置重點可能會做過了頭，讓暴力極端分子有時間和空間重整旗鼓並捲土重來，一如2013年伊斯蘭國從伊拉克凱達組織的灰燼中復燃。

“Terrorist networks have spread,” said Christopher P. Costa, a former senior director for counterterrorism to President Donald Trump’s National Security Council.

“I fear that without continuing counterterrorism pressure, where there are ungoverned spaces used as sanctuaries, there will be resurgent threats,” said Costa, now executive director of the International Spy Museum in Washington.

曾任川普總統國家安全會議反恐事務資深主任的克里斯多佛．柯斯塔說：「恐怖主義網絡已經蔓延。」

現為華府國際間諜博物館執行長的柯斯塔說：「我擔心，在有些三不管空間會被用作庇護所的地方，若不繼續施加反恐壓力，威脅會再度出現。」

Americans are having fewer babies. At first, researchers thought the declining fertility rate was because of the recession, but it kept falling even as the economy recovered. Now it has reached a record low for the second consecutive year.

美國人生的孩子越來越少了。起初，研究人員認為生育率下降是因為經濟衰退，但就算經濟復甦，生育率仍持續下降。如今美國的生育率連兩年寫下歷史新低。

Because the fertility rate subtly shapes many major issues of the day — including immigration, education, housing, the labor supply, the social safety net and support for working families — there’s a lot of concern about why today’s young adults aren’t having as many children. So we asked them.

由於生育率微妙地影響當今許多重大問題，包括移民、教育、住房、勞動力供給、社會安全網和對在職家庭的支持，許多人相當關切時下年輕人為什麼不多生小孩。就讓我們來問問他們。

Wanting more leisure time and personal freedom; not having a partner yet; not being able to afford child-care costs — these were the top reasons young adults gave for not wanting or not being sure they wanted children, according to a new survey conducted by Morning Consult for The New York Times.

「晨間顧問公司」為紐約時報做的一項新調查顯示，希望有更多的閒暇和個人自由，還沒有伴侶，以及負擔不起托兒費用，是年輕人不想或不確定他們想要孩子的主要原因。

About a quarter of the respondents who had children or planned to said they had fewer or expected to have fewer than they wanted. The largest shares said they delayed or stopped having children because of concerns about having enough time or money.

在已有孩子或打算生孩子的受訪者中，約有四分之一說，他們實際上有的或預計會有的孩子，比想要的少。大多數人說，由於擔心沒有足夠的時間或金錢，他們推遲或停止生孩子。

The survey, one of the most comprehensive explorations of the reasons that adults are having fewer children, tells a story that is partly about greater gender equality. Women have more agency over their lives, and many feel that motherhood has become more of a choice.

這份調查是對成年人越生越少的原因最全面的探索之一，說出了一個故事，而這故事的一部分跟更大的性別平等有關。女性對自己的生活享有更大的揮灑空間，許多人認為當母親已經變成更是一種選擇了。

But it’s also a story of economic insecurity. Young people have record student debt, many graduated in a recession and many can’t afford homes — all as parenthood has become more expensive. Women in particular pay an earnings penalty for having children.

但這也是經濟不安全感的故事。年輕人背負破紀錄的學貸，許多人在經濟衰退的時候畢業，也有許多人買不起房子，而這一切都發生在養兒育女得花更多錢的時刻，女性尤其得在有了孩子之後受到收入減少的懲罰。

“We want to invest more in each child to give them the best opportunities to compete in an increasingly unequal environment,” said Philip Cohen, a sociologist at the University of Maryland who studies families and has written about fertility.

美國馬里蘭大學社會學者柯恩研究家庭問題，並曾撰寫有關生育率的文章，他說：「我們希望在每個孩子身上投入更多資源，讓他們在越來越不平等的環境中享有最好的競爭機會。」

At the same time, he said, “There is no getting around the fact that the relationship between gender equality and fertility is very strong: There are no high-fertility countries that are gender equal.”

同時，柯恩說：「無可否認，性別平等與生育率高度相關：沒有一個高生育率的國家性別平等。」

The vast majority of women in the United States still have children. But the most commonly used measure of fertility, the number of births for every 1,000 women of childbearing age, was 60.2 last year, a record low. The total fertility rate — which estimates how many children women will have based on current patterns — is down to 1.8, below the replacement level in developed countries of 2.1.

美國絕大多數婦女仍然生孩子，但最常用的衡量生育率標準，即每1000名育齡婦女的生育數量，去年為60.2，創歷史新低。「總生育率」根據目前的模式推估婦女會擁有的子女數量，已降至1.8，低於發達國家2.1的人口替代水準。

The United States seems to have almost caught up with most of the rest of the industrialized world’s low fertility rates.

看來美國幾乎趕上了工業化世界絕大多數其餘國家的低生育率水準。

※說文解字看新聞

本文討論美國生育率持續下降的原因。總和生育率（total fertility rate），簡稱生育率（fertility rate），反映婦女一生中生育子女的總數，出生率（birth rate）則是每千人中新生人口的數目。

人口成長最重要的單一因素是生育率，一個區域的人口在沒有移出（emigration）或移入（immigration）的情況下，若要保持穩定，總生育率必須達到2.1，亦即每個育齡婦女都生2.1個孩子，總生育率2.1就是能讓人口不增不減的替代水準（replacement level）。

追蹤生育率可以更有效地分配資源。如果一國的生育率不尋常地維持在高檔，可能須增設學校或加強平價托兒服務。這種情況發生在二戰後美國的嬰兒潮（baby boom）時代，當時總生育率來到3.8。反之，如果總生育率維持在低檔，意味人口迅速老化，醫療和社會安全支出可能會給經濟帶來過多負擔（undue burden）。

與生育率有關的政府政策可能採直接或間接形式。直接的就是給予減稅優惠（tax break）或生育獎勵（childbearing incentives），間接政策針對其他目標，但會在無意中影響生育率，譬如修改有關產假（maternity leave）和陪產假（paternity leave）的規定。不過，其實很少有政策能扭轉總生育率低落的情況。