For the last half-century the politics of the Middle East has been shaped by five key pillars, but all five are now crumbling. A new Middle East is aborning — but not necessarily the flourishing one that people imagined in the 1990s.

中東政治在過去半世紀裡一直由五大支柱所形塑支撐，而如今這五大支柱都在倒塌。一個新的中東正在形成，但未必會如1990年代人們想像的那樣繁榮。

This one is being shaped more by Twitter memes than by U.S. diplomats, more by unemployment than by terrorism, more by upheavals on the streets than by leaders in palaces, more by women than by men. Can’t say where it will all settle out, but for now, beware falling pillars.

說起形塑這個新中東的諸般力量，推特模因大過美國外交官，

失業問題大過恐怖主義，街頭動亂大過廟堂之上的領導者，女性大過男性。無法預知大勢最終如何底定，但現在，要小心正在傾倒的柱子。

How so? For starters, there was always a deep U.S. involvement in shaping the future of this region. But just look around today: The U.S. doesn’t even have ambassadors in Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan or Saudi Arabia, and the U.S. ambassador to Israel, a former Trump bankruptcy lawyer, is so enthralled with the right-wing Jewish settler movement that he is more a propagandist than a diplomat. Bye-bye American pie.

怎會如此？首先，美國過去一直積極介入該地區前途的形塑，然而看看當前的情況，美國甚至沒有在埃及、土耳其、伊拉克、阿拉伯聯合大公國、約旦及沙烏地阿拉伯派駐大使，而曾任川普破產問題律師的美國駐以色列大使，則醉心於右翼猶太屯墾運動，以致與其說他是位外交官員，不如說他是個宣傳人員。掰掰美國派。

Second, there has always been some kind of Israeli-Palestinian peace process pushing for the best two-state solution. Again, bye-bye. Today, in truth, the U.S. and Israel seem to be engaged in a search for the best one-state solution, meaning permanent Israeli security control over the West Bank and East Jerusalem, along with some form of deep Palestinian autonomy.

其次，以巴之間始終存在著某種推向最佳兩國方案的和平進程，而這也掰掰了。事實上，現在美國跟以色列似乎正致力尋求最佳的一國方案，這意味以色列將對約旦河西岸跟東耶路撒冷進行永久性安全管控，佐以某種形式的巴勒斯坦高度自治。

Third, Arab governments could always guarantee jobs for their populations in their bureaucracies or security services — jobs where you could come late, leave early and work another job on the side. Also, bye-bye. With falling oil prices and rising populations, virtually every Arab state today is trying to figure out how to shed government workers and outsource services.

第三，阿拉伯各國政府一向能保證他們的人民可在行政體系與安全機構裡找到工作，做這些工作可以遲到、早退，還能在外兼差，但這也掰掰了。隨著油價下跌、人口上升，今天幾乎每個阿拉伯國家都在設法裁減政府人員，並把一些服務外包出去。

The fourth crumbling pillar: The days when information flowed only from the top down, and Arab governments could control the voices in their countries, are long gone. With Twitter, Facebook and WhatsApp widely diffused in the Arab world, information now moves horizontally and people — using their real names — now tweet the most insulting things at their leaders.

第四根正在傾倒的支柱是，資訊只從上向下流動，阿拉伯各國政府能控制國內聲音的時代早已遠去。隨著推特、臉書跟WhatsApp在阿拉伯世界廣泛傳播，資訊如今水平移動，使用他們真實姓名的人們如今在推特上發布對他們領導人最具侮辱性的言詞。

Finally, men could dominate women through formal and informal religious, cultural and legal norms. But the recent high-profile cases of young women fleeing male control in Saudi Arabia and the UAE spoke for many Arab women who are no longer so willing to submit to male guardianship. This is especially true because women in many countries, Jordan, for instance, are now out-graduating men in both high school and universities.

最後則是，男性過去可透過正式與非正式的宗教、文化和法律規範宰制女性，但最近沙烏地阿拉伯與阿聯年輕女性逃離男性控制的高調案例顯示，許多阿拉伯婦女不再願意接受男性監護。這點尤其真確，因為在許多國家高中和大學畢業女性數量，都多過男性，約旦即為一例。

Welcome to the new Middle East! ！

歡迎來到新中東！

Before the massacre of 50 people in New Zealand mosques last month, the suspect released a document called “The Great Replacement.” The first sentence was: “It’s the birthrates.” He repeated it three times.

紐西蘭上個月發生導致50人死亡的清真寺屠殺案，凶嫌犯案前發表了名為「大取代」的文件。劈頭第一句話是「就是出生率」，並重複了三次。

If the phrase about replacement sounded familiar, perhaps that was because it echoed what white supremacists bearing tiki torches shouted in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017: “You will not replace us.” It is also the slogan of the neo-Nazi group Identity Europa.

如果這個關於替代的詞語聽來耳熟，也許是因為它附和了2017年維吉尼亞州夏洛茲維爾市，手持Tiki火炬白人至上主義者所喊出的口號「你們無法取代我們。」它同時也是新納粹組織「歐洲認同」的口號。

Behind the idea is a racist conspiracy theory known as “the replacement theory,” which was popularized by a right-wing French philosopher. An extension of colonialist theory, it is predicated on the notion that white women are not having enough children and that falling birthrates will lead to white people around the world being replaced by nonwhite people.

這觀念背後是個被稱為「取代理論」的種族主義陰謀論，由一位法國右翼哲學家所推廣。它是殖民主義理論的延伸，其基礎是白人婦女未生下夠多的孩子，出生率下降將導致世界各地的白人被非白人所取代。

And like so many fundamentalist ideologies, the foundation of this one requires the subjugation of women.

跟很多基本教義派意識形態一樣，這個意識形態的基礎也是壓制女性。

“For people in the white power movement, everything is framed through reproduction and gender,” said Kathleen Belew, history professor at the University of Chicago who has studied these groups.

曾研究這些團體的芝加哥大學歷史教授凱薩琳．貝魯說：「對投入白人權力運動的人們來說，一切都是由生殖和性別構成的。」

As far-right groups have grown across the world, many of their members have insisted that the most pressing concern is falling birthrates. That concern, which they see as an existential threat, has led to arguments about how women are working instead of raising families. The groups blame feminism, giving rise to questions that were unheard-of a decade ago — like, whether women should have the right to work and vote at all.

極右翼團體正在世界各地成長，他們許多成員堅認最急迫的問題是出生率下降。他們認為這個問題足以威脅生存，引發了有關女性走入職場而非在家養育子女的爭論。這些團體指責女權主義，一些十年前聽都沒聽過的問題也隨之出現，像是女性是否根本不應享有工作與投票的權利。

The obsession with birthrates is both shaping policy goals within the far right and serving as a rallying cry for recruitment. Experts tracking these movements say they are alarmed by the speed and strength with which the idea is spreading, especially among young radicals.

對出生率的執著既形塑極右派的政策目標，亦成為其招募新血的口號。追蹤這些運動的專家們表示，他們對這個觀念傳播的速度和力度感到驚訝，尤其是在激進的年輕人之間。

“In their minds, in this clash of civilization, white men are in a weaker position because their women are not doing the work of reproducing,” said Arun Kundnani, a professor at New York University and author of “The Muslims Are Coming! Islamophobia, Extremism and the Domestic War on Terror.” “They are saying, ‘Look, Muslims have got their women where they need to be, and we’re not doing a good job at that.'”

著有《穆斯林來了：恐伊蘭斯症、極端主義及國內反恐大戰》一書的紐約大學教授阿倫．昆德納尼說：「他們認為，在這場文明衝突中，白人處於弱勢，因為他們的女人沒有做好生育的工作。他們說「聽著，穆斯林已讓他們的女人站立於應該在的位置，而我們在這方面做得並不好。」

The concern over birthrates has hit a fever pitch in part because of recent studies showing sperm counts and testosterone declining. Some men are buying sperm counters to use at home, and some are turning to testosterone replacement therapy, convinced that modernity has feminized them. These have given old fears a new scientific sheen and led many in these communities to more apocalyptic, violent politics.

對出生率的擔憂到達狂熱的程度，部分係因近來研究顯示男性的精子數量與睾固酮濃度都在下降。一些男性購買精子數量計算器在家使用，有些人則轉向睾固酮替代療法，認為現代性讓他們女性化。這讓舊的恐懼披上新的科學光彩，並將這些團體中許多人帶向更末世論、更暴力的政治觀。

《說文解字看新聞》

replacement在文中意為「取代」，並非另一個常見意思「更換」，當用在一般消費活動時指的「換貨」之意，用在體育比賽則指的是替補上場的選手，例句Joe will be a replacement for the injured forward.（喬將替補受傷的前鋒出賽。）

supremacist指的是「至上主義者」，為一貶義詞，由代表「超越」的字首supr與表示「信奉...者」的名詞字尾ist組合而成，形容認為一個種族、宗教、民族、性別或其他事物至高無上的人。

例如Jewish supremacist（猶太至上主義者）、Hindu supremacist（印度至上主義者）及Black supremacist（黑人至上主義者）等等。而supremacism一詞，則指這些人信奉之意識形態。

文中片語fever pitch則指「狂熱、極度興奮」狀態，前面加上動詞hit則形容狂熱達到白熱化程度，而這種熱度或能從白人至上主義者集會時，手拿tiki牌火炬火光沖天的場景看出，tiki火炬指夏威夷式火炬，也是品牌名。