美掀貿易戰 擋不了全球化

If globalization were ever going to unravel, the beginning would probably feel something like this.

如果全球化真的會崩解，它的開頭感覺上應該會是如此這般。

President Donald Trump, the leader of the country that built the world trading system, continues to disrupt international commerce as a weapon wielded in pursuit of national aims.

唐納．川普總統，世界貿易體制建立國的領導人，持續擾亂國際商業，以此作為武器用來追求國家目標。

He has unleashed trade hostilities with China, placed tariffs on steel made by allies like Europe and Japan, and restricted India’s access to the American market. He vowed to hit Mexico with tariffs mere months after he agreed to a new version of a deal liberalizing trade across North America.

他向中國發動貿易戰，對歐洲和日本等盟國製造的鋼鐵課徵關稅，且限制印度進入美國市場的機會。就在他同意新版北美自由貿易協定的數個月後，就誓言以關稅打擊墨西哥。

But globalization has become such an elemental feature of life that it is probably irreversible. The process of making modern goods, from airplanes to medical devices, has become so mind-bendingly complex, involving components drawn from multiple continents, that a few unexpected tariffs will not prompt companies to swiftly close factories in China and Mexico and replace them with plants in Ohio and Indiana.

然而全球化已成為極為基本的生活要素，應該已無法逆轉。從飛機到醫療器材，現代貨品製造過程的組成複合度已變得極高，包括取得來自多個洲陸的組件，因此，一些意料之外的關稅不會促使企業立刻關閉在中國大陸和墨西哥的工廠，而用俄亥俄州和印第安納州的工廠來取代。

What does appear to be ending is the post-World War II era in which the United States championed global trade as immunization against future conflict, selling the idea that the free exchange of goods was a pathway toward a more stable world order.

而看起來真正要結束的，是二戰後時代。在這個時代裡，美國力倡以全球貿易防杜未來的衝突，並推銷貨物自由交流可建立更穩定世界秩序的想法。

U.S. administrations forged rules governing disputes, enabling countries to trade with diminished fear of capricious political intervention. In ceding this role, Trump has weakened the rules-based trading system while removing a counterweight to China, whose transactional approach to trade places scant value on transparency and human rights.

美國歷任政府建立了管理爭議的規則，讓各國從事貿易時對反覆無常的政治干預不再那麼恐懼。川普讓出這個角色，削弱了以規則為基礎的貿易體制，同時喪失了一個制衡中國的力量，而中國從事貿易時採取的交易手段，極不重視透明與人權。

“One thing is really clear: There has got to be a reset in the world trading system,” said Swati Dhingra, an economist at the London School of Economics. “It’s all breaking at the seams at this point.”

「有一點顯而易見：世界貿易體制必須重新設定。」倫敦經濟學院經濟學家史瓦提．丁格拉說。「此刻所有的接縫皆已裂開。」

The trade war unleashed by Trump has injected higher costs and confusion into the global economy, forcing businesses to anticipate the next venue for hostilities. U.S. retailers and manufacturers voiced that complaint in testimony to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, ahead of Trump’s plans to put tariffs on a further $300 billion worth of Chinese imports.

由川普發動的貿易戰已使全球經濟成本更高也更加混亂，迫使企業預測下一波貿易戰戰場何在。美國零售商和製造商在美國貿易代表署作證時傾吐了上述苦衷，時間就在川普計畫進一步對價值3000億美元的中國進口商品課徵關稅之前。

“This is now the post-American world economy, one in which globalization is much more spotty,” said Adam S. Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “The world is a riskier place, where access to markets is a lot less sure.”

「這就是現今的後美國世界經濟，全球化問題遠比過去要多。」華府的彼得森國際經濟研究所所長亞當．波森說。「世界是個風險更高的地方，能否進入市場也難說得多。」

In the Trump framing, the United States is best served by the unsentimental exploitation of its position as the world’s largest economy. It must brandish threats of limiting access to its market to force other countries to capitulate to its demands.

依照川普的理論，美國毫不留情地充分利用它世界最大經濟體的地位，最合乎美國的利益。美國必須大舉祭出限制外國貨品進入其市場的威嚇，以迫使其他國家屈從於美國的要求。

選誰迎戰川普？美民主黨 恐因世代出現分歧

As a young adult, Ronnie Werner protested the war in Vietnam, fought for civil rights and supported a 42-year-old Democrat, Robert F. Kennedy, in her first election in 1968. Forty years later, her home served as the local headquarters for then-Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign, as she urged her fellow Democrats to embrace new leadership.

拉妮．維爾納20歲左右時參加反越戰抗議，為爭取民權而奮戰，並在1968年總統大選民主黨黨內初選首次行使投票權時，支持42歲的參選人羅伯．甘迺迪。40年後，時任聯邦參議員的歐巴馬競選總統時，地方競選總部就設在她位於新罕布夏州漢普頓市的家中，當時她鼓勵民主黨同志力挺新的領袖。

That was then. Now, as Democrats grapple with the possibility that President Donald Trump could win four more years in the White House, Werner feels that betting on the next generation is a risk she can’t afford to take.

此一時，彼一時。如今，就在民主黨人為總統川普可能再贏得四年任期而苦思對策時，維爾納覺得把賭注押在下一代身上風險太高，她賭不起。

The political power of generational change, a constant in Democratic politics and in victorious presidential campaigns for much of the past 60 years, is being hotly debated as the party wrestles with how to defeat Trump.

過去60年來多數時間，民主黨在內部運作上和打贏總統選戰時，總少不了政治權力的世代交替。而民主黨苦思如何擊敗川普的當下，這一點卻在黨內引起了激辯。

Age has never defined a race so sharply before. The 23 Democrats include one of the youngest presidential candidates in modern history and the oldest one, spanning four generations — from 37-year-old Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana, to 77-year-old Bernie Sanders, senator from Vermont.

在民主黨的初選史上，年齡問題的重要性從未如此突出。23個參選人中，既有現代史上最年輕的總統參選人之一，也可見年紀最長的，橫跨四個世代，一頭是37歲的印第安納州南灣市長布塔朱吉，另一頭是77歲的佛蒙特州聯邦參議員桑德斯。

“The age thing is going to be one of the wedges by the time we get to the caucus next year,” said Bryce Smith, the 27-year-old Democratic chairman in Dallas County, a fast-growing suburb of Des Moines, Iowa. “It’s that question of experience versus new leadership.”

史密斯現年27歲，是愛荷華州首府第蒙市快速成長的郊區達拉斯郡的民主黨黨部主席，他說：「到了明年黨團會議時，年齡會是導致黨內不和的一個因素。這會是經驗為重與新人領導的取捨問題。」

Interviews with more than three dozen voters, strategists and officials in recent weeks showed Democrats struggling not only with the question of how old, exactly, was too old but also with whether it was time to turn over the country’s most powerful office to a new generation.

紐約時報最近幾周訪問30幾名選民、策士和民主黨幹部，結果顯示，令民主黨人費煞思量的不只是究竟幾歲參選總統才算太老，還有是否該把美國權力最大的公職交給新的世代。

Democratic midterm wins ushered in a diverse wave of younger politicians, assisted by record turnout from young voters. Twenty-four Democrats under the age of 40 entered Congress, a fourfold increase from just two years ago. Their victories boosted expectations that youth could be an asset in the presidential race.

民主黨贏得期中選舉，讓各種各樣年輕政治人物冒出了頭，年輕選民投票率創新高也助長了這個現象。總共有24名不到40歲的民主黨人進入國會，是兩年前的4倍。他們勝選讓人更加預期，年輕在這次總統大選中會是資產。

Yet, at a time of ascendancy for younger Democrats, some worry there may be political peril in nominating a younger politician to challenge the 72-year-old Trump. It’s a notable shift for a party that has traditionally won the White House by embracing the ethos of a new generation in candidates like Obama in 2008, Bill Clinton in 1992 and John F. Kennedy in 1960.

不過，年輕一代民主黨人占優勢之際，有人擔心，提名年輕政治人物挑戰72歲的川普會有政治風險。民主黨向來靠著支持新世代候選人而拿下政權，如2008年的歐巴馬、1992年的柯林頓和1960年的甘迺迪，而今卻對提名年輕人有疑慮，這個轉變值得注意。