歐洲民粹運動 與川普劃清界線

For Europe’s populists, the electoral defeat of President Donald Trump, who has been a symbol of success and a strong supporter, was bad enough. But his refusal to accept defeat and the violence that followed appears to have damaged the prospects of similarly minded leaders across the continent.

對歐洲民粹主義者而言，一向被他們視為成功的象徵與強力支持者的美國（前）總統川普連任失利已經夠糟了，而他拒絕認輸和繼之而起的暴亂，似乎已讓歐陸各地與他志同道合的領導人物前途蒙上陰影。

“What happened in the Capitol following the defeat of Donald Trump is a bad omen for the populists,” said Dominique Moïsi, a senior analyst at the Paris-based Institut Montaigne. “It says two things: If you elect them, they don’t leave power easily, and if you elect them, look at what they can do in calling for popular anger.”

巴黎智庫蒙田研究所資深分析師莫伊西說：「川普敗選後發生在國會大廈的事，對民粹主義者是壞兆頭，顯示出兩件事：一旦選了他們，他們不會輕易交出權力，還有如果把票投給他們，瞧瞧他們煽動民眾怒火的能耐。」

The long day of rioting, violence and death as Trump’s supporters stormed the Capitol has presented a clear warning to countries such as France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland about underestimating the force of populist anger and the prevalence of conspiracy theories aimed at democratic governments.

川粉攻占國會這一整天出現的騷亂、暴力和死亡，明確警告法國、德國、義大利、荷蘭與波蘭等國家，切莫低估民粹主義怒火的力量，針對民主政府的陰謀論又有多麼盛行。

Heather Grabbe, director of the Open Society European Policy Institute in Brussels, said the unrest showed how the populist playbook was founded on “us versus them and leads to violence.”

比利時布魯塞爾「歐洲開放社會政策研究所」所長希瑟．葛雷布指出，這一起暴亂顯示，民粹主義者的攻略，是奠基在「我們與他們對立的觀念上，而且會引發暴力」。

“It’s very important to show where populism leads and how it plays with fire,” she added. “When you’ve aroused your supporters with political arguments about us versus them, they are not opponents but enemies who must be fought with all means, and it both leads to violence and makes conceding power impossible.”

她說：「我們必須指明民粹主義會引向什麼後果和民粹主義如何玩火，這非常重要。當你用我們與他們誓不兩立的政治論述激起支持者的情緒，『他們』就不只是反對者，而是必須用盡一切手段去打敗的敵人，這會導致暴力，並使交出權力變得全無可能。」

Just how threatening Europe’s populists found the events in the United States could be seen in their reaction: One by one, they distanced themselves from the rioting or fell silent.

歐洲民粹主義者已察覺美國的暴亂事件對他們極具威脅性，這可從他們的反應看出，他們一個接一個不是與暴亂劃清界線，就是默不作聲。

There remains considerable anxiety among mainstream politicians about anti-elitist, anti-government political movements in Europe, especially amid the confusion and anxiety produced by the coronavirus pandemic.

歐洲主流政治人物對於反菁英和反政府政治運動仍深感焦慮，在新冠疫情造成困惑不安的此際更是如此。

Janis A. Emmanouilidis, director of studies at the European Policy Center in Brussels, said that there was no uniform European populism. The various movements have different characteristics in different countries, and outside events are only one factor in their varying popularity, he noted.

布魯塞爾智庫歐洲政策中心研究總監伊曼歐伊里迪斯說，歐洲並沒有全體一致的民粹主義，不同國家的民粹運動各有特色，而外部事件只是影響民粹盛行程度的因素之一。

The “amazing polarization of society” and the violence in Washington “creates a lot of deterrence in other societies,” Emmanouilidis said. “We see where it leads, we want to avoid it, but we are aware that we too could get to that point, that things could escalate.”

他說，「美國社會對立嚴重」和華府國會暴亂「使其他社會格外警惕，我們看到民粹的後果，想避免步上後塵，但也知道我們自己可能走到那個地步，事態可能惡化。」

川普政治遺產：拒絕民主的選民

The sight of a violent mob inspired by President Donald Trump smashing its way into the Capitol was more than just a shocking spectacle. It also highlighted one of the most dangerous parts of Trump’s legacy: the disbelief in democracy that has metastasized among many of his supporters.

美國總統川普煽動暴民衝進國會大廈不只是個令人震驚的景象，還凸顯出川普政治遺產中極其危險的一個部分：已在他許多支持者中擴散開來的那分對民主的不信任。

While the turmoil has divided Republican officials, there are few signs of division among these voters who fervently back Trump. In interviews earlier this month, they expressed sympathy with what they said were the motives of the mob: to stop the counting of Electoral College results in Congress, under the false premise that widespread fraud had deprived the president of reelection.

儘管這場動盪讓共和黨官員間產生了分歧，這些狂熱支持川普的選民立場卻幾無分歧跡象。在本月稍早的訪談中，他們對暴民的動機，即阻止國會計算選舉人團的投票結果，表示同情，然而他們根據的卻是川普係因普遍的舞弊始未能連任的不實前提。

The adherence of Trump’s base to his groundless claims of a “sacred landslide” victory and their rejection of a routine constitutional process — a position abetted by 147 congressional Republicans who objected to certifying President-elect Joe Biden’s election — suggests that a core part of the Republican Party is dead-set on rejecting the legitimacy of any politics or party but their own.

川普的基本盤對他毫無根據的「獲神聖壓倒性」勝利之說堅信不疑，同時拒絕接受常規憲法程序，後者且因147名國會共和黨人反對認證拜登勝選而獲加持，顯示共和黨的一個核心部分已經鐵了心，拒絕接受自身以外任何政治行為或是政黨的合法性。

In the interviews, Trump supporters adamantly clung to what they called evidence of a fraudulent election, engaged in so-called whataboutism to play down the scenes of destruction in Washington and accused the news media of being overly melodramatic in describing events as a historic inflection.

川普支持者受訪時堅稱選舉舞弊確有實據，以所謂「那又怎麼說主義」淡化華府遭破壞的場面，並指責新聞媒體將事件描述為歷史轉折點太過誇張。

Since Trump first ran for president, his critics have been predicting that one of his norm-shattering acts would send droves of his supporters fleeing. It has never happened.

自從川普首次競選總統以來，批評者一直預測，他的某項打破常規的舉動會嚇跑大批支持者。此事卻從未發生。

For these voters, the lack of allegiance to democratic values seemed to stem, in part, from the shift among many Republicans to imbibing information from sources that offer propaganda rather than news and facts.

這些選民缺乏對民主價值觀的忠誠，部分原因似乎在於許多共和黨人改變了吸收資訊的來源，獲取的是宣傳，而非新聞和事實。

Another likely factor that leads to delegitimizing political opponents among Trump supporters is the scorched-earth attacks on Democratic candidates during elections.

導致川普支持者想讓政治對手失去合法性的另一個可能原因是，競選期間對民主黨候選人的焦土攻擊。

Some members of the president’s base said they would view Biden as illegitimately occupying the Oval Office, a further polarization of Americans after years when some Democrats questioned or denied Trump’s legitimacy.

一些川普總統的基本盤成員表示，他們會認為拜登是非法占據了橢圓形辦公室，這顯示在歷經部分民主黨人質疑或否定川普具有合法性的數年之後，美國民眾更進一步的兩極分化。

In the view of many Trump supporters, the president was never given a chance to govern; he was besieged from day one by claims of Russian collusion, fierce obstruction of his priorities and, ultimately, an impeachment.

許多川普的支持者認為，川普從未獲得好好治國的機會；他從上任第一天起，就被勾結俄羅斯的指控、優先施政事項遭嚴重阻撓，以及最終的彈劾所圍困而難以施展。

說文解字看新聞【陳韋廷】

美國暴民闖國會反映政治兩極分化加劇，並凸顯川普留下不堪的政治遺產：對民主機制的不信任。legacy為新聞常見單字，可形容人或事留下的影響或問題，另末段單字polarization指的就是兩極分化，來自動詞polarize。

川普選舉前後不斷播下懷疑大選合法性的種子，delegitimize即形容他此項作為，字意為「使失去合法性」，即to remove the legitimate status of。

其中legitimate是表示「合法、正當」的形容詞，名詞為legitimacy。又同段單字whataboutism文中譯作「那又怎麼說主義」，是冷戰時期蘇聯對西方使用的宣傳策略，透過指責他人錯誤和前後矛盾來轉移批評，有人譯為「比爛」或「別人也沒更好」詭辯術。

首段片語smash into指「闖進」，同break into，play down是把嚴重事情淡化。play up正好相反，指「誇大」。