簡介：自2008 年金融風暴以降，美國和歐洲分別發動多次貨幣寬鬆政策，美國聯準會主席柏南奇（Ben Bernanke）因而獲選為
2009 年《時代雜誌》年度人物，歐洲央行總裁德拉吉（Mario Draghi）也被《金融時報》評為2012 年度人物。然而，近日
執行類似政策的日本首相安倍晉三卻換來國際間的無情抨擊。安倍強力要求央行印鈔背後的原因為何？連帶造成的日圓貶
值又將對全球經濟帶來什麼樣的衝擊？且看內文的精闢剖析。
The Price of Abenomics
When Shinzo Abe's Liberal Democratic Party swept back to power in Japan late last year, it was on the back of a pledge to beat def lat ion. The world's third-largest economy has seen 20 years of falling consumer prices, which experts say has taken its toll. Abe's plan is, thus, to carry out a Bernanke-style quantitative easing with the aim of enforcing a mandatory 2-percent inflation target. He now has a governor and a team in place at the Japanese Central Bank to push ahead with this policy of reflation.
As well as geographical size, the contiguous urban area that stretches from Tokyo to Yokohama has a population of over 37 million people, outstripping its neighbor Seoul by more than 10 million. Little wonder then that Tokyo is home to a gargantuan rapid transit system, which comprises the publicly-operated Toei and the Tokyo Metro. This latter system, alone, is the busiest subway in the world in terms of annual ridership.
With US$3 trillion in foreign assets, Japan is the world's biggest creditor nation. This has made it a recipient of safe haven flows that strengthen the yen, particularly in periods of crisis — most recently the European sovereign
debt situation and the Fukushima disaster. Fiscal policy tends to tighten at such times, and the country's exporters suffer. Japan's vaunted trade surplus has slowly seeped away, via six consecutive quarters of losses, culminating in a record 6.93 trillion-yen deficit for 2012. A Chinese boycott of Japanese goods over the Senkaku/Diaoyutai furorh hasn't helped matters. Meanwhile, Japanese reluctanceh to spend has compounded things, with private savings at a high of US$16 trillion. Low levels of investment by domestic businesses have resulted in a government debt
to GDP ratio of 211 percent.
安倍經濟學 是福還是禍？
當安倍晉三領軍的自民黨於去年年底重新在日本執
政時，他們誓言要戰勝通貨緊縮。這個全球第三大經濟體
的物價消費連續廿年呈現滑落，專家表示這已損害其國內
經濟。因此安倍的計畫是要實施柏南奇式的量化寬鬆，達
成執行強制性的 2% 通膨目標。他目前在日本央行的首長
與小組已就定位，要來推動這項通貨再膨脹政策。
有著三兆美元國外資產的日本是全球最大的債權國。
這使其成為貨幣流動的避風港，進而促使日圓走強，尤其
是在最近歐洲主權債務與福島災害等危機時期。財政政策
在這類時期傾向緊縮，日本的出口商也蒙受其害。日本引
以為豪的貿易順差隨著連續六季的損失而逐漸失色，並在
二○一二年以創紀錄的 6.93 兆日圓逆差達到高峰。中國
大陸因尖閣群島／釣魚台騷動而抵制日貨對此問題更無所
助益。同時，日本民間不願消費與高達 16 兆美元的國民
儲蓄讓情況更加惡化。國內企業投資意願不高，導致政府
債務佔國內生產毛額比率達 211%。
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