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讀紐時學英文
2015/06/19 第77期 訂閱/退訂看歷史報份
 
 
紐時周報精選 Fears of a Robot Takeover Are Likely Premature/機器人接管地球? 研究者揭密他們在玩什麼把戲
More Go Off Alone, With More Options/喘口氣吧! 獨自旅行的單身遊客增多
紐時周報精選
 
Fears of a Robot Takeover Are Likely Premature/機器人接管地球? 研究者揭密他們在玩什麼把戲
張佑生/譯
In glossy sci-fi movies like “Ex Machina” and “Chappie,” robots move with impressive – and frequently malevolent – dexterity. They appear to confirm the worst fears of prominent technologists and scientists like Elon Musk, Stephen Hawking and Bill Gates, who have voiced alarm over the possible emergence of self-aware machines out to do harm to the human race.

在《機械姬》和《成人世界》這類精采刺激的科幻電影裡,機器人行動的靈活性令人印象深刻,而且往往帶有敵意。它們似乎證實了伊隆.馬斯克、史蒂芬.霍金、比爾.蓋茲這些卓越的科技人和科學家們最大的恐懼:他們已經警告,具有自我意識的機器人可能出現,將禍害人類。

《成人世界》劇照。圖擷自Chappie Movie

Not so fast. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, a United States Pentagon research arm, recently held its Robotics Challenge in Pomona, California, with a $2 million prize for the robot that performs best in a series of tasks. A preview of their work suggests that nobody needs to worry about a Terminator creating havoc anytime soon. The robots have an hour to complete eight tasks that would take a human less than 10 minutes, like opening a door and entering a room.

沒這麼快。美國國防部研究部門「國防高級研究計劃署」(DARPA)日前在加州莫納舉行機器人挑戰賽,在一系列任務中表現最出色的機器人,團隊獲頒200萬美元獎金。預覽過參賽作品後,發現誰也不用擔心電影魔鬼終結者式的毀天滅地很快就會到來。參賽的機器人有一個小時來完成一個人可能不到十分鐘就能完成的八項任務,像是打開房門後進入房間。

“The extraordinary thing that has happened in the last five years is that we have seemed to make extraordinary progress in machine perception,” said Gill Pratt, the Darpa program manager in charge of the Robotics Challenge.

負責機器人挑戰賽的DARPA專案經理吉爾.普萊特說:「過去五年發生真正意外的事情是,我們似乎在機器感知領域取得驚人的進展。」

Advance in pattern recognition hardware and software has made it possible for computers to make dramatic progress in computer vision and understanding speech, he said. In contrast, Dr. Pratt said, little headway has been made in “cognition,” the higher-level humanlike processes required for true autonomy. “Without the person, these machines could hardly do anything at all,” he said.

他說,模式辨識的硬體與軟體的進步,使電腦在電腦視覺和語音理解的領域得以出現重大進展。普拉特說,在真正自主所必須,像人類高階處理的「認知」層面,反而沒甚麼進展。「沒有人操作,這些機器幾乎什麼事也做不了。」

In fact, the steep challenge in making progress toward mobile robots that can mimic human capabilities is causing robotics researchers worldwide to rethink their goals. Instead of trying to build autonomous robots, many have begun to think instead of creating ensembles of humans and robots.

事實上,要在能模擬人類能力的行動機器人領域取得進展,面臨的挑戰甚大,以致全球的機器人研究者開始重新思考自己的目標。許多研究人員不再嘗試製造自主的機器人,轉而開始思考創造人類和機器人的組合。

Ken Goldberg, a University of California, Berkeley, roboticist, proposed a concept he calls “multiplicity,” with diverse groups of humans and machines solving problems through collaboration.

柏克萊加州大學的機器人學家肯.戈德堡提出所謂「多樣性」的概念,就是讓各種人類和機器團隊通過合作以共同解決問題。

Artificial-intelligence researchers have long noted that the simplest tasks for humans are the most challenging for machines.

人工智慧的研究者早就發現,對人類來說最簡單的任務,對機器卻最困難。

“The intuitive idea is that the more money you spend on a robot, the more autonomy you will be able to design into it,” said Rodney Brooks, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology roboticist and co-founder of iRobot and Rethink Robotics. “The fact is actually the opposite is true: The cheaper the robot, the more autonomy it has.”

「眾人的直覺是,在機器人身上投入的資金越多,可在它們身上設計出來的自主性就越高,」麻省理工學院機器人學家、同時也是iRobot和Rethink Robotics這兩家公司共同創辦人的羅德尼.布魯克斯說。「事實恰好相反:越便宜的機器人自主性越高。」

For example, iRobot’s Roomba robot is autonomous, but the vacuuming task it performs is extremely simple. But the company’s Packbot is more expensive, designed for defusing bombs, and must be controlled wirelessly by people.

例如,iRobot公司的掃地機器人Roomba屬於自主型,但執行的吸塵工作極其簡單。該公司拆除炸彈的機器人Packbot更昂貴,卻必須由人類透過無線操控。

The first Darpa challenge in 2004 of robotic vehicles helped spark greater interest in artificial intelligence. And in the 2005 challenge, a $2 million prize was claimed by a group from Stanford University in California, whose vehicle defeated another in a tight race. The contest led to Google’s decision to begin a self-driving-car project.

2004年的DARPA第一屆自動車輛挑戰賽,激發對人工智慧更大的興趣。次年的挑戰賽,加州史丹福大學團隊設計的車輛激戰後勝出,贏得200萬美元獎金。此一賽事促使谷歌決定展開自動駕駛汽車計畫。

“We had a relatively easy task,” said Sebastian Thrun, who led the Stanford team in 2005 and later started the Google self-driving-car project. “Today they’re doing the hard stuff.”

賽巴斯欽.童恩是2005年機器人挑戰賽史丹福隊的領隊,後來又開展谷歌的自動駕駛汽車計畫。他說:「我們當時的任務比較簡單,他們今天執行的才是困難的任務。」

His view about the relationship between humans and robots has been shaped by the contests.

機器人挑戰賽塑造了他對人類與機器人之間關係的看法。

“I’m a big believer that technology progresses by complementing people rather than replacing them,” he said.

「我深信,科技進步是補人類的不足,而不是取代人類。」

 
More Go Off Alone, With More Options/喘口氣吧! 獨自旅行的單身遊客增多
王麗娟/譯
More and more travelers are traveling solo – and they’re not who you might expect them to be.

越來越多人一個人旅行,而且他們不是你料想中會單獨旅遊的人。

Some 24 percent of people traveled alone on their most recent overseas leisure vacation, up from 15 percent in 2013, according to the 2015 Visa Global Travel Intentions Study, which was conducted across 25 countries.

根據「威士卡全球旅遊意向研究」對全球25個國家所做調查的結果,受調者最近一次的海外度假,約24%是一人成行,比率高於2013年的15%。

Among first-time travelers, solo travel is even more popular, jumping to 37 percent, up from 16 percent in 2013.

單獨旅行在首次旅遊者中甚至更受歡迎,從2013年的16%躍升為37%。

And while the stereotypical solo traveler has traditionally been single and looking, a solo traveler these days is just as likely, if not more likely, to be married or in a committed relationship.

儘管典型的單遊客傳統上多為單身,而且正在積極尋找另一半的人,現今的單遊客則有同樣的可能性,甚至更高的可能性,是已婚者,或是已有固定情感對象的遊客。

圖片來源/Lordcolus(CC BY-SA 2.0)

There are those who travel by themselves because their partner’s job prevents them from taking simultaneous getaways. Some have a yen for a particular activity, like golf, that isn’t shared by their partner. Others are caregivers for a disabled spouse or partner and take the occasional solo trip when a family member is able to help out at home.

有些人單獨上路,是因為他們的伴侶工作纏身,不克同行。有些人則因熱衷的活動較特別,例如打高球,但伴侶不願同樂,另有些是殘障配偶或伴侶的照護者,因有家人可在家幫忙替個手,因此偶爾可單獨旅遊。

“Many people seem to think that solo travelers are single people, with many or most looking for love,” said Priscilla O’Reilly of Overseas Adventure Travel. “That’s not the case with our travelers.”

「海外冒險旅行」的普莉西拉.歐萊利說:「很多人以為單遊客是一些單身者,許多或多數是為了尋找愛情。我們的旅客不是如此。」

Plenty of people who book with the company – where more than 40 percent of travelers are solo, up from 35 percent in 2013 and 27 percent in 2007 – do so without their spouse or partner. Most of them are women, Ms. O’Reilly added, “and, some of them admit that after having taken care of spouses and kids for so many years, it’s nice to have an experience on one’s own.”

向該公司訂行程的許多人都不帶配偶或伴侶上路。超過40%的旅客是一個人旅行,高於2013年的35%和2007年的27%。他們多數是女性,歐萊利說,「有些人坦承,在照顧配偶和子女多年後,體驗一下單獨旅行是很棒的事。」

The climate for solo travel is improving. Some fees are being dropped, and more packages are being marketed to people who plan to vacation on their own.

單遊的環境也在改善之中。有些收費取消了,而且越來越多套裝旅行是以計畫單獨度假者為推銷對象。

Cruise companies are not only adding more cabins, some are also doing away with single supplements (surcharges that can be anywhere from 10 to 100 percent or more of the standard rate). Tom Harper River Journeys, a river cruise company near Boston, said that in 2016 it would introduce a ship with supplement-free staterooms and French balconies for solo travelers. The Majestic Line, a small-ship cruising company based in Britain, announced that next year two of the seven en-suite cabins on a new ship will be for solo travelers and won’t have single supplements. And Holland America, based in Seattle, plans to add 12 new ocean-view cabins for solo travelers next year on its forthcoming ship, the MS Koningsdam.

郵輪公司不僅增加更多單人房,有些公司還取消單人補差價政策(這些附加費可能是房間訂價的10%到100%,甚至更高)。「湯姆.哈柏遊河」這家波士頓附近的河流遊船公司說,2016年他們將推出一艘遊船,提供單遊客不必補差價的特等艙和法式陽台房間。英國的小型郵輪公司「美琪航運」宣布他們一艘新船的7個套房,將開放兩個給單遊客,且不必補差價。西雅圖的「荷美航運」計畫在他們的新船「康寧斯丹號」上,新添12個海景房給明年的單遊客。

Zegrahm Expeditions eliminated the single supplement on three of its 2015 trips: a circumnavigation of the Black Sea; a visit to India, Sri Lanka and the Maldives; and a circumnavigation of South Georgia Island.

「齊格拉姆探險」2015年取消3項旅程的單人差價補貼,分別是黑海環遊,印度、斯里蘭卡、馬爾地夫之旅,以及南喬治亞島環遊。

Online travel agents and sites like Orbitz and TripAdvisor now include search filters for singles and solo travel.

網路旅行社與網站如Orbitz和TripAdvisor,現在也提供單身者和單遊的搜尋過濾器。

Hotels have yet to make many strides, though a few, including the Westin New York Grand Central, have gotten creative. In July the hotel offered what was seemingly the first getaway package from a major American hotel brand directed at solo female travelers. It included a consultation about healthful eating and discounted yoga classes.

飯店業尚無太多動作,雖然包括威斯汀紐約中央飯店在內的一些飯店,開始搞些創意。去年7月,威斯汀紐約中央飯店提供的專案,看來像是美國品牌大飯店專為單遊女客提供的第一個休假套裝旅行。它涵蓋了健康飲食諮詢和打折的瑜伽課程。

The hotel’s website, however, described it as “a memorable experience for guests traveling with friends or recharging on their own.”

話雖如此,飯店網站將它形容為「一個讓賓客和友人同遊或自我充電的難忘經驗」。

Cath Cole, 42, who runs a fund-raising consultancy in Britain, has been on several trips with Solos Vacations to places as varied as Turkey and Northampton, England.

42歲的凱絲.柯爾在英國經營一家募集資金的顧問公司,她已經透過「單人度假」公司數度出遊,地點包括土其和英格蘭的北安普頓。

“I often get holiday time at late notice and many of my friends can’t be flexible, so whether I’m in a relationship or not, I still consider Solos,” she said. “It’s not the dating scene everyone who hasn’t been thinks it is. Sure, some people get together, but that’s not what it’s about. It’s about independent travelers, not dating holidays.”

她說:「我經常要到很晚才知道騰得出時間休假,而我的許多友人又無法彈性休假,所以不管我是否有固定男友,我還是考慮單遊。它不是約會場合,雖然大家都這麼認為。當然,有些人會交友,但這不是重點。它是獨立旅遊,不是約會假期。」

 
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