圖擷自Boeing

Sharply falling oil prices are a boon to airlines, saving billions of dollars in monthly fuel bills for a highly competitive industry that last year eked out an average profit of just $6 a passenger.

狂跌的油價對競爭激烈的航空業者很補，去年每名乘客的利潤才六美元，如今每個月可省下數十億美元的燃料費。

But what is good news for the airlines raises questions for the world’s largest jet makers, Boeing and Airbus, which have been riding a wave of demand for the latest fuel-efficient jets, driven in large part by the high price of oil.

但是航空業者的佳音對全球最大的飛機製造商波音和空中巴士來說，未必是好消息。主要拜高油價所賜，兩巨頭收到一堆新式低油耗客機訂單。

The concern is that the drop in oil prices could prompt airlines to delay orders, after nearly a decade in which the aircraft makers have benefited from a boom in orders.

歷經接近十年的榮景後，飛機製造商擔心的油價下跌可能促使航空公司延後訂單。

“What has propelled the market to record growth are two factors: cheap cash and expensive fuel,” said Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst . “Now something has changed.” If the fall in the price of oil continues, airlines would be motivated to keep their older, fuel-guzzling jets flying for a few more years and delay new orders in hopes of saving money.

「推動市場成長創紀錄有兩大因素：低利率和高油價，」航空業分析師李察．阿布拉非亞說：「現在狀況已有所改變。」如果油價續跌，將鼓勵航空公司延後下訂單，讓機齡較久、高油耗的客機多飛幾年以省錢。

The total backlog of unfilled orders for Boeing and Airbus stands at more than 12,000 aircraft, valued at close to $2 trillion and enough to keep their assembly lines humming for more than eight years.

波音和空巴未交貨的飛機訂單總數超過一萬二千架，總價將近二兆美元，足夠讓生產線忙個八年以上。

And orders kept coming in last year. Airbus said recently that it secured purchase contracts for a net 1,456 jets last year, down slightly from 1,503 planes in 2013, and that it delivered 629 in 2014. And Boeing recently reported 1,432 net orders in 2014, up from 1,355 a year earlier, and 723 plane deliveries for the year — an industry record.

去年訂單仍源源不斷。空巴日前表示，去年確認的飛機訂單有1,456架，略遜於2013年的1,503架，去年交機629架。波音日前宣稱去年收到1,432架的訂單，優於前一年的1,355架，去年交機723架創下業界紀錄。

Boeing and Airbus each control roughly half the market for airliners with more than 100 seats.

100座以上飛機的市場，波音和空中巴士大致各占有一半。

Gains in fuel efficiency have topped the manufacturers’ lists of selling points for their newest generation of commercial jets. They include recently upgraded versions of short-range workhorses like the Boeing 737 and the Airbus A320, as well as lightweight, wide-bodied models made from carbon fiber like the Boeing 787 Dreamliner or the Airbus A350 .

低油耗成為飛機製造商推銷新一代商用飛機的最大賣點，包括新近升級版的短程主力機型波音737與空中巴士A320，以及用碳纖打造、重量輕的廣體飛機，如波音787夢幻客機和空巴A350。

Weaker growth, in addition to the influx of new planes and a flood of new low-cost players in the air travel market, has already translated into a glut of available airline seats in parts of Asia, driving down ticket prices there.

成長趨緩，加上新機和廉價航空業者湧入搭機旅行的市場，已讓部分亞洲地區機位供過於求，壓低了票價。

“You are beginning to see the effects of overcapacity on airline profitability,” said Nick Cunningham of Agency Partners, a brokerage firm in London. “You can’t keep on adding capacity without bankrupting the industry,” Mr. Cunningham said.

倫敦仲介商「經銷夥伴」的尼克．康寧漢說：「各位將開始看見運量過剩對航空公司獲利的影響。容量一直增加，產業不可能不崩盤。」

Falling oil prices may exacerbate the overcapacity problem by tempting airlines to lower fares in an effort to increase market share, said Adam M. Pilarski of Avitas, an aviation consulting firm in Virginia. That not only reduces the cash that airlines have available to pay for new planes they have ordered, he said, but also increases the odds that financially shaky carriers will delay or cancel orders — or not survive long enough to take delivery of their jets.

美國維吉尼亞州飛航顧問公司Avitas的亞當．皮拉斯基表示，油價下跌恐怕會促使業者削價搶市占率，使容量過剩問題惡化。如此一來，不僅航空公司支付訂購新機貨款的現金會減少，也會讓財務狀況危殆的航空業者延後或取消訂單的風險變高，甚至在交機前就倒閉。

“Manufacturers know that when they sell a plane today for delivery in nine years, by then the environment might change,” Mr. Pilarski said. “The airline may change its mind, or it might not even be in business anymore.”

「製造商知道今天接的飛機訂單九年後才交貨，屆時情勢可能已變，」皮拉斯基說：「航空業者可能改變心意，甚或已經不存在了。

Airbus filed a lawsuit in December against Skymark, a struggling Japanese budget carrier that canceled a $2 billion order for six A380 superjumbo passenger jets in July. Airbus’s claim, filed in a British court, seeks unspecified damages .

營運狀況不佳的日本廉航業者天馬航空去年7月取消6架A380超級巨無霸、總價20億美元的訂單後，空巴12月在英國對天馬提告，求償金額不詳。

Any prolonged slowdown in the overall replacement rate could put the brakes on Boeing and Airbus delivery rates, analysts said. A study published last year by Ascend, an aviation consultancy , found that about 50 percent of all new jet deliveries over the past five years had been for replacement purposes rather than growth .

分析師說，班機整體汰換率減緩現象若延長，恐怕都會使波音和空巴交貨腳步變慢。航空顧問公司「上升」去年發表的研究結果發現，過去五年交付的新機約五成用於汰換，而非新增。

Plane makers, though, are showing few signs of concern.

然而，飛機製造商似無憂慮的跡象。

Darren Hulst of Boeing said airlines will still need new aircraft “to continue to grow and take advantage of the tailwinds in the operating cost environment.”

波音的達倫．胡斯特（譯註：市場分析總監）說，航空公司仍然需要新飛機「以便持續成長並在營運成本的環境中搭順風車。」

Fabrice Bregier of Airbus said that with oil prices impossible to predict, airlines would be wise to keep buying aircraft with lower fuel consumption. But he also emphasized that Airbus could weather any decline in orders.

空中巴士的法布．布里吉（譯註：執行長）表示，油價走向難以逆料，航空公司最好持續購買低油耗飛機。但他也強調空巴可以應付訂單減少。

“We have almost 6,400 aircraft in the backlog,” Mr. Bregier said . “So we could, in principle, even sustain no orders for three to four years.”

「我們等待交貨的飛機將近6,400架，」布里吉說：「所以，原則上即使沒訂單都能撐個三、四年。」

蕾諾兒．史肯納齊。圖擷自Lenore Skenazy (@FreeRangeKids)Twitter

Lenore Skenazy, a New York City mother of two, earned the nickname “America’s Worst Mom” after reporting in a newspaper column that she had allowed her younger son, then 9, to ride the subway alone.

紐約市的蕾諾兒．史肯納齊是兩個小孩的媽，因為在報紙專欄披露讓當時九歲的次子單獨搭地鐵，被封為「美國最爛的母親」。

The criticism she endured, including a threat of arrest for child endangerment, intensified her desire to encourage parents to give their children the freedom they need to develop self-confidence and resilience .

她承受的批評，包括差點因置小孩於危險罪被捕，強化了她鼓勵家長給子女必要的自由，以發展自信心和抗障性的意願。

One result was the publication in 2009 of her book “Free Range Kids: How to Raise Safe, Self-Reliant Children (Without Going Nuts With Worry).” A second result is the Free Range Kids Project and a 13-part TV series , “World’s Worst Mom.” In it, Ms. Skenazy rescues children from parents’ overprotectiveness by guiding the children through a sequence of once-forbidden activities and showing the parents how well the children do .

成果之一是她2009年出版《放養的孩子：如何教出安全、自立的子女（不用擔心到抓狂）》專書。成果之二是「放養子女」計畫和13集的電視節目《世上最爛的母親》。節目中，史肯納齊引導孩童從事原本遭禁止的活動，向家長展示子女能做得多好，藉此將孩童從保護過頭的家長手中救出。

Parents who subscribe to Ms. Skenazy’s approach include Danielle and Alexander Meitiv in Washington. The couple made news recently after allowing their children — Rafi, 10, and Dvora, 6 — to walk home alone from a local park. The children were stopped by the police , and the family is now under investigation by a social agency.

認同史肯納齊這套方法的家長包括華府的麥提夫夫妻亞歷山大與丹妮兒。在允許十歲的拉菲和六歲的德沃拉從附近公園單獨走回家後，兩夫妻上了新聞。孩童被警察攔下，社會局正在調查麥提夫一家。

In the first episode of “World’s Worst Mom, ” 10-yearold Sam’s mother won’t let him ride a bike (“she’s afraid I’ll fall and get hurt”), cut up his own meat or play “rough sports” like skating. The plea from Sam: “I just want to do things by myself.”

在《世上最爛的母親》第一集中，十歲的山姆，媽媽不讓他騎單車（「她怕我摔倒受傷」），或自己切肉片，滑冰之類的「粗野運動」也不行。山姆的懇求是：「我只是想靠自己做事情。」

In an interview, Ms. Skenazy said, “Having been brainwashed by all the stories we hear, there’s a prevailing fear that any time you’re not directly supervising your child, you’re putting the child in danger.” The publicity given to crimes has created an exaggerated fear of the dangers children face if left to navigate and play on their own.

史肯納齊女士接受訪問時說：「我們被聽聞過的各種報導傳聞洗腦，普遍的恐懼感是任何時候只要你沒有親自盯著子女，就是置小孩於險境。」犯罪事件引起的注意，過度放大了對孩童單獨探索玩耍時所面臨危險的恐懼。

But Peter Gray, a psychologist at Boston College, said: “The actual rate of strangers abducting or molesting children is very small. It’s more likely to happen at the hands of a relative or family friend. The statistics show no increase in childhood dangers. If anything, there’s been a decrease.”

波士頓學院心理學家彼得．葛雷卻說：「孩童被陌生人綁架騷擾發生率其實很低，親戚或家庭友人反而更有可能動手。統計數據並未顯示孩童的危險增加。實情是這種危險反而一直在減少。」

Dr. Gray, author of “Free to Learn: Why Unleashing the Instinct to Play Will Make Our Children Happier, More Self-Reliant, and Better Students for Life,” said , “If children are not allowed to take routine risks, they’ll be less likely to be able to handle real risks when they do occur.”

葛雷博士著有《自由學習：為何解放玩耍本能將讓子女更快樂、更自立、更適應人生》。他說：「如果不讓孩童在例行普通的活動冒險，真正遇上危險時，恐怕就比較應付不來。」

His college’s counseling office has seen a doubling in emergency calls in the last five years, “mainly for problems kids used to solve on their own,” like being called a bad name by a roommate .

波士頓學院的輔導室發現五年來緊急求救的電話數倍增，「主要是孩童以往自己解決的問題」，像是被室友辱罵。

In the past, children made up their own games and acquired important skills in the process. “In pickup games,” Dr. Gray said, “children make the rules, negotiate, and figure out what’s fair to keep everyone happy. They develop creativity, empathy and the ability to read the minds of other players .”

過去，孩童自創遊戲，過程中學到重要技巧。在「搭車遊戲」中，葛雷博士說，「孩童制定規則、協調、找出讓每個人都開心的公平方式。孩童發展創造力、同理心和看透別人心思的能力。」

Dr. Gray links the rise in childhood depression and anxiety to the decline in free play among young children. “Young people today are less likely to have a sense of control over their own lives and more likely to feel they are the victims of circumstances, ” he said.

葛雷博士將孩童抑鬱焦慮壓力的上升，歸咎於幼童間自由玩耍的減少。他說：「時下的年輕人對於自己的生活可能比較沒有控制感，比較可能自認是環境的受害者。」

Children today spend many more hours indoors than in years past, which in part accounts for the rise in childhood obesity and Type 2 diabetes. As Ms. Skenazy put it, “if parents truly believe children must be supervised every second of the day, then they can’t walk to school, play in the park, or wake up Saturday morning, get on their bikes and go have an adventure.”

現在的孩童待在室內的時間遠比過去多，孩童肥胖和第二型糖尿病增加，部分原因與此有關。史肯納齊是這麼說的：「如果家長堅信每天時時刻刻都得監看子女，那麼子女將不能走路上學、去公園玩耍、或者周六早上起床後，騎上單車去嘗試探索新的事物。」